棉花、棉纱日报-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures Market: CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts all showed price declines. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13780, down 20, with a trading volume of 229,172 (an increase of 52245), and an open interest of 522,168 (a decrease of 21990) [2]. - Spot Market: The CCIndex3128B price was 15005 yuan/ton, up 69; the Cot A price was 74.95 cents/pound; the FC Index:M: arrival price was 74.07, down 0.09. The prices of some other spot products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - Spread: In the cotton and yarn markets, there were changes in inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 30, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6145, down 60 [2]. Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: On December 3, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1940 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous period. In October 2025, Japan's clothing imports remained at a high level, with the import value reaching 364.853 billion yen (equivalent to 2.418 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 4.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.99%. On December 2, 2025, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.68 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - Trading Logic: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. After the peak season, the market has entered a relatively off - season. Overall, the supply is abundant but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is average, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [7]. - Cotton Yarn Industry News: Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly, while cotton yarn futures fluctuated weakly, with an overall bearish profit outlook. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders and mostly small orders. High - count yarns still had good sales. The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market was weak, and fabric mills were mainly focused on inventory reduction. The anti - down fabric in Nantong Home Textile Market in Jiangsu still had continuous sales, but the profit margin was lower than expected [8]. Options - Option Contract Data: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, information such as the underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc. was provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract had a closing price of 183.00, a price increase rate of 71.0%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - Volatility and Strategy: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options [10][11][12].