聚酯板块系列专题报告行情篇（PTA、MEG、聚酯）：累库预期延后

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: In November, PTA was in a balanced state. With multiple device overhauls implemented and the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the supply pressure was relieved, and the spot processing fee was repaired. In December, the inventory accumulation expectation decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around a wide - balance, with an optimistic outlook on the absolute price [1][10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price of MEG dropped to a near - three - year low due to the long - term oversupply situation. After some device shutdowns, the load declined, and it was expected to decline slightly in December. Although overseas supply was abundant, the recent improvement in the supply - demand situation limited the downside space of the futures price [2][10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The short - fiber operating load was at a high level with good inventory, but the spot processing fee decreased compared to last month. The bottle - chip was still the segment with the greatest supply - demand pressure in the polyester industry, and its spot processing fee narrowed. The overall resilience of the polyester load delayed the inventory accumulation expectation of raw materials [2][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Logic - PTA: Multiple device overhauls since November alleviated the pressure of new capacity. The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to exports. With reduced supply, the spot processing fee was repaired, and the December inventory accumulation expectation decreased [10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price hit a near - three - year low due to long - term oversupply. After some device shutdowns, the load decreased, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas supply was abundant, but the supply - demand situation improved recently, limiting the downside space of the futures price [10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. The short - fiber had a high operating load and good inventory, while the bottle - chip had great supply - demand pressure. The terminal market was mediocre in November and might improve slightly in December. The polyester load's resilience delayed raw material inventory accumulation [11]. 3.2 PTA Overhaul Increases, Supply - Demand Pressure Eases 3.2.1 PX Pattern is Good - In November, oil prices were weak. PX had a strong supply - demand structure. Its inventory was low, and new capacity was expected to be supplied in the second half of next year, with concentrated overhauls in the second quarter. The PX - N spread rose above $260/ton [15]. 3.2.2 PTA Supply Narrows, Processing Fee Improves Slightly - This year, three new PTA devices were put into operation, increasing the effective capacity by 10% compared to the end of last year. In November, multiple device overhauls postponed the new capacity pressure. With polyester operating at over 91%, the PTA supply - demand was in a wide - balance. The spot processing fee recovered from below 100 yuan/ton to 150 - 200 yuan/ton, but the industry was still in an overall loss [17][21]. 3.2.3 PTA Balance Forecast - The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to China's PTA exports in the short term. In 2025, from January to October, China's PTA exports to India were 20.1 million tons. In November, the PTA output was 6.26 billion tons with a 10 - million - ton inventory increase. In December, the first half - month had less supply pressure, and the overall market was not pessimistic [24][25]. 3.3 MEG Supply - Demand Improves, Short - term Downside Space is Limited 3.3.1 Supply Narrows - In late October, the MEG load reached a recent high, and the supply was abundant. In the long - term, new devices added to the supply pressure, causing the price to hit a near - three - year low. Since November, the load has dropped by about 2%, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas, the overall supply was high [30]. 3.3.2 Overseas Supply is Not Low - Currently, the overall domestic and overseas supply is abundant. In December, Middle - East supplies will shrink moderately. Since September, the East China terminal inventory has nearly doubled, and the import volume in October increased to 654,000 tons, expected to continue rising in November and December [35][36]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Forecast - In late November, the MEG factory inventory decreased, and the polyester factory's raw material inventory increased slightly. In December, with the polyester load at 90 - 91%, MEG was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the downside space was not overly pessimistic [38]. 3.4 Downstream Demand is Resilient 3.4.1 Polyester Improves Month - on - Month - In November, the polyester load was maintained at around 91.3%. The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. In November, two new filament devices were put into operation, and two more will be released in December, increasing the demand for raw materials. The short - fiber production increased significantly in November, with good inventory control. The export growth rate was high, and the market was expected to follow raw material fluctuations. The bottle - chip supply pressure was high, the processing fee was weak, and the demand was in a seasonal off - peak, with limited future driving forces [44][51][62]. 3.4.2 Terminal Demand is Average - In terms of domestic demand, from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth of retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was 3.5%. In October, the domestic retail sales increased by 7%. In terms of exports, in October, textile and clothing exports decreased by 12.6%. From January to October, the cumulative export was $243.94 billion. The weaving order days decreased in November, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom operating rate dropped to 72%. Domestic sales demand weakened, and exports might improve slightly [72].