黑色金属日报-20251203

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - Hot Rolled Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, indicating a certain bullish trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and policies, with a generally weak domestic demand and a high but declining export. The market shows an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [2] - The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with strong supply and weakening demand. The market is expected to oscillate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by downstream demand, carbon element supply, and inventory. Coke prices are likely to continue the rebound, while coking coal prices may be dragged down [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by supply, demand, and raw material factors. Their prices are oscillating, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Performance: The market oscillated today. Thread steel's apparent demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled steel demand declined, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly [2] - Supply and Demand: Iron - water production declined, and downstream acceptance was insufficient. Steel mills continued to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. Domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level [2] - Market Outlook: Spot prices were relatively strong in the off - season. With positive policy expectations, the market will continue to oscillate and strengthen, but the rhythm may fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, and domestic arrival volume was high. Port inventory continued to accumulate and was approaching the annual high [3] - Demand: Steel's apparent demand was low, in the off - season and with poor profitability. Iron - water was in a production - cut trend, and iron - ore demand had room to further weaken [3] - Market Outlook: The macro atmosphere was warm, and there were expectations for policy benefits. The market was expected to oscillate [3] Coke - Market Performance: The price oscillated strongly during the day, with a slight rebound due to expectations of downstream replenishment [4] - Supply and Demand: Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream demand had some resilience, but steel mills had a strong desire to lower raw - material prices [4] - Market Outlook: The futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to continue the rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The price oscillated strongly during the day, rebounding due to expectations of downstream replenishment [6] - Supply and Demand: Coking - coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average with mostly falling prices, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory increased slightly [6] - Market Outlook: The futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be dragged down by high Mongolian coal imports in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Market Performance: The price oscillated during the day. Manganese - ore spot prices increased due to the futures rebound [7] - Supply and Demand: Iron - water production decreased seasonally, weekly silicon - manganese production decreased slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly [7] - Market Outlook: Supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed. Pay attention to the impact of reduced shipments from Ghana [7] Silicon Iron - Market Performance: The price oscillated during the day [8] - Supply and Demand: There were expectations for coal supply guarantee, leading to expectations of lower electricity costs and semi - coke prices. Iron - water production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium production increased. Overall demand had some resilience. Supply decreased, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - Market Outlook: Observe the bottom - support strength [8]