国投期货能源日报-20251203

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has a downward pressure on the central price due to the expanding supply - demand surplus in the fundamentals, despite a short - term rebound from geopolitical factors [3] - The core driver of the fuel oil market lies in the supply side, with different influencing factors for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, and the supply - demand structure needs further attention [4] - The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation in prices, with weak demand and slow inventory reduction, expected to continue the weak trend [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - API data shows an increase in refined oil and crude oil inventories in the US [3] - The SPM - 3 of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia, under maintenance since mid - November, is expected to resume operation within the next seven days, faster than the original plan [3] - After the rebound pricing due to geopolitical tensions, there is a sign of giving back some geopolitical premiums, and the expanding supply - demand surplus determines the downward pressure on the oil price center [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The short - term support comes from the decline in Middle East shipments and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and previous coking profits and quota shortages boosted its feedstock demand [4] - The early issuance of domestic crude oil quotas may divert this demand [4] - Although the Russia - Ukraine negotiations send positive signals, the risk premium will not completely disappear before clear implementation, and sanctions will continue to affect the shipment of high - sulfur resources [4] - In the medium term, logistics difficulties have led to floating storage inventory accumulation, and the loose pattern remains unchanged [4] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply fluctuations mainly come from unplanned overseas refinery maintenance [4] - The return of the Bintulu refinery and the postponed restart of the Azur refinery have slightly relieved short - term supply pressure, but weakening refined oil cracking continues to put pressure on it [4] - Attention should be paid to the production increase pressure from continuous overseas refinery restarts and whether the year - end shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve the supply - demand structure [4] Asphalt - The spot price of the domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation trend [5] - Demand in the Northeast and North China regions is gradually stagnant, with traders mainly stocking up in warehouses; the South China market has weak trading sentiment due to a low contract price from a Hainan refinery, and prices are weakly stable [5] - The weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a near - four - year low [5] - Social inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase has gradually expanded after a turning point from a decrease to an increase in late October; refinery inventory has increased slightly month - on - month, and the de - stocking rhythm of overall commercial inventory has significantly slowed down [5] - The BU is expected to continue the weak trend [5]