每日核心期货品种分析-20251203

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - As of the close on December 3rd, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Pulp rose over 3%, Shanghai tin rose over 2%, palladium and polysilicon rose nearly 2%, and double - offset paper and styrene rose over 1%. In terms of declines, lithium carbonate, eggs, and coking coal fell over 2%, while glass, caustic soda, soda ash, ethylene glycol, and alumina fell over 1%. Stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 3rd, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Pulp, Shanghai tin, palladium, polysilicon, double - offset paper, and styrene had gains, while lithium carbonate, eggs, coking coal, glass, caustic soda, soda ash, ethylene glycol, and alumina had losses. Stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [4][5] 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing strength during the day. After a mudslide accident at an Indonesian copper mine, it plans to restart large - scale production in stages from the second quarter of 2026. Copper production in China is expected to increase in December. The copper smelting processing fee fluctuates narrowly around $42 per dry ton. After the peak season, the apparent demand for copper decreased month - on - month, but downstream power grids and energy storage still provided rigid support. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully reflected in the disk, and the subsequent upward momentum is weak, but the domestic industry's production reduction intention promotes a tight balance expectation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation of long - term processing fees [7] 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and moved higher but declined during the day. In November, the domestic monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. The capacity utilization rate in December is expected to remain high, but there may be a seasonal reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction. The production of downstream intermediate products continued to increase in November, but the growth rate slowed down. The inventory in November increased slightly. The decline in the disk is mainly due to the expected increase in supply, but the strong downstream demand provides certain resistance to the decline [8][9] 3.2.3. Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. Eight additional voluntary - cut producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended, and the overall oil inventory has increased slightly. The U.S. crude oil production is at a historically high level, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased significantly. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined due to the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, but it is difficult to reach an agreement in the near future. The U.S. and Venezuela's military confrontation has intensified, causing concerns about supply disruptions. The crude oil market is still in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10] 3.2.4. Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate rebounded last week. The expected asphalt production in December decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate mostly declined. The national asphalt shipment increased, and the refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. The asphalt start - up rate will increase slightly this week. The demand will weaken further in the future, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [12] 3.2.5. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of拉丝, decreased. The PP enterprise start - up rate increased, and the production ratio of the standard product 拉丝 increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space of PP is expected to be limited in the near future [13][14] 3.2.6. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate decreased slightly. The downstream start - up rate of PE decreased, and the orders of agricultural film decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline. The downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space of plastics is expected to be limited in the near future [15] 3.2.7. PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region increased. The PVC start - up rate continued to increase. The downstream start - up rate was basically stable. Concerns about PVC exports to India have been alleviated, but the export order signing decreased last week. The social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. New production capacity has been put into operation. The upward space of PVC is limited in the near future [16][17] 3.2.8. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and moved low, closing up after intraday fluctuations. The spot price in the Shanxi market remained unchanged, and the price of Mongolian coal increased slightly. The number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles gradually recovered after the holiday, and the domestic mine production increased. The coking enterprises are in serious losses, but the downstream steel mills have rigid demand. The coking coal is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, but the market has support. Attention should be paid to domestic key meetings [18] 3.2.9. Urea - Urea opened high and moved higher, showing strength during the day. The futures market has rebounded for several days, and the spot trading volume has increased. Some factories have stopped selling. The gas - based devices have started to limit production. The current daily output remains between 190,000 and 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is mainly for low - price purchases. The compound fertilizer factories' start - up rate is increasing, and the winter storage provides demand support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and show certain resistance to decline. The inventory is expected to continue to decline smoothly [19][20]