银河期货白糖日报-20251203

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2][3] - Report Date: December 3, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [5] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Disk - SR09: Closing price 5,317, down 11 (-0.21%), volume 4,413 (down 1,659), open interest 22,981 (up 1,618) [6] - SR01: Closing price 5,366, down 16 (-0.30%), volume 133,086 (down 30,887), open interest 330,181 (down 8,305) [6] - SR05: Closing price 5,297, down 19 (-0.36%), volume 60,725 (up 2,637), open interest 237,171 (up 15,382) [6] Spot Price - Sugar in Liuzhou: Today's quote 5,545, down 20, basis 179 [6] - Sugar in Kunming: Today's quote 5,410, down 5, basis 44 [6] - Sugar in Wuhan: Today's quote 5,840, down 10, basis 474 [6] - Sugar in Nanning: Today's quote 5,480, down 30 [6] - Sugar in Rizhao: Today's quote 5,750, basis 384 [6] - Sugar in Xi'an: Today's quote 6,040, down 20, basis 674 [6] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -69, down 3 [6] - SR09 - SR05: Spread 20, up 8 [6] - SR09 - SR01: Spread -49, up 5 [6] Import Profit - Brazil Import: ICE main 14.77, premium (0.19), freight 38.00, in - quota price 4,071, out - of - quota price 5,173, spread with Liuzhou 372, spread with Rizhao 577, spread with the disk 193 [6] - Thailand Import: ICE main 14.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,117, out - of - quota price 5,223, spread with Liuzhou 322, spread with Rizhao 527, spread with the disk 143 [6] Group 3: Market Judgment Important Information - Guangxi: As of November 30, 2025, 35 sugar mills have started crushing, 26 less than the same period last year; cumulative cane crushed 1.4411 million tons, 3.2521 million tons less than last year; mixed sugar production 133,900 tons, 378,500 tons less than last year; mixed sugar yield 9.29%, 1.63 percentage points lower than last year; cumulative sugar sales 89,400 tons, 195,600 tons less than last year; sales ratio 66.77%, 11.15 percentage points higher than last year; new sugar industrial inventory 44,500 tons, 182,900 tons less than last year [8] - Yunnan: As of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills have started crushing (5 last year); cumulative cane crushed 439,400 tons (349,700 tons last season); sugar production 44,800 tons (38,600 tons last season); sugar yield 10.22% (11.05% last season); cumulative new sugar sales 32,200 tons (32,600 tons last year); sales ratio 71.89% (84.50% last year); industrial inventory 12,600 tons (5,900 tons last year) [9] - Brazil: The growth of ethanol demand in Brazil should ensure that the expansion of corn as a bio - fuel raw material will not endanger sugarcane ethanol producers. Since the early 2000s, Brazil's corn ethanol production has more than tripled, while sugarcane ethanol production has remained roughly flat [11] Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest stage, and producing ethanol is more advantageous, so the sugar - making ratio has decreased significantly recently. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is 39.179 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out, with a short - term price trend slightly stronger in a volatile manner [12] - Domestic: In the short term, domestic sugar mills are starting to crush one after another, and the output in the new season will increase, so the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase. However, considering the tightened import of syrup and premixed powder in China and the relatively high previous point - pricing cost, the domestic sugar production cost is also high, which provides some support for the futures price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: As the Brazilian sugar season is approaching the end, the supply - side pressure is easing, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out, with a short - term expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. Although the domestic market has an unexpectedly large amount of imported sugar and the start of sugar mills, increasing the sales pressure, considering the high domestic white sugar production cost and the relatively low current futures price, the downward space is expected to be limited. Short - term long positions can be considered to be built at low prices [13] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [14] - Options: Sell put options at low levels [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi monthly production, Yunnan monthly production, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread, sugar January basis, Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread, sugar May basis, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spread, etc. [15][20][23][24][29][31]