沥青日报：震荡上行-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt supply is expected to increase slightly, with开工率 rising due to some refineries resuming production and others switching production. However, demand will weaken further as road construction in the north winds down with the dropping temperature and project growth in the south is limited. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts. Overall, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, while others plan to resume production, and the开工 rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand side: Last week, most downstream industries'开工率 declined, with road asphalt开工率 dropping by 5 percentage points to 29% due to funding and weather constraints. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and overall demand will be weak [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat week - on - week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Crude oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace negotiation in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under US military threats [1]. - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong has declined recently, and the basis is at a neutral level. Some refineries have started to release winter storage contracts, but the market is cautious [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.41% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,884 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,957 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 23,392 to 112,712 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has continued to decline to 2,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to - 2 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4]. - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to October was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4].