内需支撑，库存去化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is supported by domestic demand, and inventory is being depleted. The price of urea is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range and show a certain degree of resistance to decline. The fundamentals and downstream enthusiasm are favorable, which can support the further strengthening of the futures market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened higher and strengthened during the day. The spot market saw increased trading volume, and some factories stopped selling due to increased orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1620 - 1680 yuan/ton, with Henan factories offering lower prices. Gas - fired plants have started to cut production due to gas restrictions, and the daily output is currently between 190,000 and 200,000 tons. Agricultural demand is mainly for reserve purchases after the autumn fertilizer season. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories is gradually increasing, and they are in the winter storage production stage, which provides demand support for urea [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures Market - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1684 yuan/ton, closed at 1692 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 9749 lots to 209,553 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 4172 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3746 lots. On December 3, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7765, a decrease of 122 from the previous trading day [2]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The spot market saw increased trading volume with the rebound of the futures market. Some factories stopped selling due to increased orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1620 - 1680 yuan/ton, with Henan factories offering lower prices [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Basis - The mainstream spot market price was stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [6]. 3.3.2 Supply Data - On December 3, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,900 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.38% [9]. 3.3.3 Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.38%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period, an increase of 10.53% [10].