塑料日报：震荡运行-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The plastics market is expected to have limited upside space in the near term due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, despite some support from policies. The开工率 of plastics has slightly declined, downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, and the cost - end crude oil price is oscillating at a low level [1] - New production capacities were put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream开工率 will decline in the future, with weak procurement willingness from downstream enterprises [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastics 2601 contract oscillated with a position reduction, closing at 6808 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the position decreased by 4354 lots to 402710 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton, and different types of PE had different price ranges [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, with orders in the agricultural film and packaging film sectors declining [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 70 tons, 5.5 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around 63 dollars/barrel, and ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4]