金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - PTA market is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously - shut - down capacity, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken [3] - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate at low levels under the expectation of reduced supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Market Performance: On December 03, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 dropped 0.46%, and the basis strengthened to - 29 yuan/ton [2] - Fundamentals: The market price in East China was 4705 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the OPEC+ meeting maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week [3] - Main Force Movements: The long - position main force reduced positions [3] - Expectations: There has been significant reduction in PTA supply recently, with previously - shut - down capacity gradually restarting. There is a phased de - stocking. The cancellation of export restrictions by India's BIS boosts exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally decline. Attention should be paid to plant restarts under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Market Performance: On December 03, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 dropped 1.55%, and the basis strengthened to 1 yuan/ton [4] - Fundamentals: The market price in East China was 3829 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The crude oil price in the cost side dropped, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory at East China's MEG ports totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons from the previous week [4] - Main Force Movements: The short - position main force increased positions [4] - Expectations: Ethylene glycol has been continuously accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure. A 3.3 - million - ton Iranian plant has recently shut down, with an undetermined restart time. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the off - season [4]