2025年12月碳酸锂基本面月报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded and closed positive. The spot price was 92,433 yuan/ton, and the futures price closed at 96,940 yuan/ton as of December 1, 2025, with a weakened basis and the spot at a discount to the futures [4]. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate decreased by 18,629 lots compared to the end of October, while the futures open interest increased by 41,799 lots as of December 2, 2025 [8]. - In November 2025, the domestic monthly output of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. It is expected to keep growing in December, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. The inventory is expected to continue to decline, but at a slower pace [12]. - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports increased by 22% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year, while exports increased by 63% month - on - month but decreased by 18% year - on - year [15]. - In November 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate production increased by about 4.7% month - on - month and 44% year - on - year, and it is expected to remain at a high level in December [19]. - In November 2025, the domestic production of ternary precursors decreased by 5.32% month - on - month and 10.2% year - on - year. It is expected to decrease by 7.81% month - on - month and 4.55% year - on - year in December [23]. - In November 2025, the domestic production of ternary materials was basically flat, with a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.29%. It is expected to decrease by 6.73% month - on - month and 3.49% year - on - year in December [26]. - In October 2025, China's power and other battery production reached 170.6 GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 50.5%. The cumulative production from January to October was 1292.5 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51.3% [29]. - In October 2025, China's power battery loading volume was 84.1 GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. The cumulative loading volume from January to October was 578.0 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 42.4% [31]. - In October 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. The sales accounted for 51.6% of the total new car sales for the first time [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Price and Inventory - As of December 1, 2025, the spot price of lithium carbonate was 92,433 yuan/ton, the futures price was 96,940 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4506 yuan/ton, showing a weakened basis and the spot at a discount to the futures [4]. - As of December 2, 2025, the number of registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate was 8992 lots, a decrease of 18,629 lots compared to the end of October, and the futures open interest was 552,239 lots, an increase of 41,799 lots compared to the end of October [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Production - In November 2025, the domestic monthly output of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. It is expected to keep growing in December, with a month - on - month increase of about 3% [12]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 23,881 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. The average import price was 64,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. The export volume was 246 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63% but a year - on - year decrease of 18% [15]. 3.4 Lithium Iron Phosphate Production - In November 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate production increased by about 4.7% month - on - month and 44% year - on - year, with an industry operating rate of about 73%. It is expected to remain at a high level in December [19]. 3.5 Ternary Precursor Production - In November 2025, the domestic production of ternary precursors decreased by 5.32% month - on - month and 10.2% year - on - year, and the industry average operating rate dropped slightly to 46.31%. It is expected to decrease by 7.81% month - on - month and 4.55% year - on - year in December [23]. 3.6 Ternary Material Production - In November 2025, the domestic production of ternary materials was basically flat, with a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.29%. The industry operating rate was stable at 54%. It is expected to decrease by 6.73% month - on - month and 3.49% year - on - year in December [26]. 3.7 Power Battery Production - In October 2025, China's power and other battery production reached 170.6 GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 50.5%. The cumulative production from January to October was 1292.5 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51.3% [29]. 3.8 Power Battery Loading Volume - In October 2025, China's power battery loading volume was 84.1 GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. The cumulative loading volume from January to October was 578.0 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 42.4% [31]. 3.9 Terminal Consumption (New Energy Vehicles) - In October 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. The sales accounted for 51.6% of the total new car sales for the first time [35].