PVC日报：震荡下行-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a downward trend with limited upside potential in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, weak demand from the real estate sector, and price competition [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate of PVC is basically stable. India has terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about Chinese PVC exports to India, and the anti-dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, the quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, have generally decreased by 30 - 60 US dollars/ton in December, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to October, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has rebounded month-on-month but is still near the lowest level in recent years, and the real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities include Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year plant operating at full capacity, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons/year and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year plants operating at low loads after trial production. The National Development and Reform Commission has held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs of disorderly price competition, which provides some support for bulk commodities. However, the maintenance of production enterprises such as Shandong Hengtong is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC has limited impact, the quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, have generally decreased in December, and December is a traditional off-season for demand, so the upside potential of PVC in the near term is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract decreased in position and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 4,518 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,575 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,541 yuan/ton, near the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.44% and a decrease in open interest of 2,694 lots to 1,021,344 lots [2]. - In terms of basis, on December 3, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region decreased to 4,460 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,541 yuan/ton. The current basis is -81 yuan/ton, weakening by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low and neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the operation of plants such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai has improved, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year plant that started mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year plant that is expected to operate stably by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year plant that was put into operation in early September and is currently approaching full capacity, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons/year and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year plants operating at low loads after trial production [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. From January to October, the commercial housing sales area was 719.82 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 7.0%. The commercial housing sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 9.4%. From January to October, the new construction area of housing was 490.61 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 359.52 million square meters, a decrease of 19.3%. From January to October, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. From January to October, the completion area of housing was 348.61 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 248.66 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%. The overall real estate market needs time to improve. As of the week ending November 30, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded by 18.17% month-on-month and is near the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% month-on-month to 1.0428 million tons, a 23.44% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high (Longzhong has increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6].