中国年金体系研究暨“寻找中国保险的Alpha”系列之四：支撑养老体系，引入长期活水

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial and insurance sector [3]. Core Insights - The second pillar of the pension system, primarily composed of enterprise annuities and occupational annuities, is steadily progressing and is crucial for addressing the challenges of an aging population and enhancing national pension security [1][10]. - The growth rate of annuities is expected to maintain an annual compound growth rate of 8%, which is higher than the projected nominal GDP growth [1][2]. - The occupational annuity system has achieved full coverage due to reforms in public sector pension insurance, while enterprise annuities are expanding from state-owned enterprises to stable private enterprises [2][10]. - The investment strategy for annuity funds is shifting towards a "barbell" structure, balancing between high-dividend, low-volatility assets and investments in sectors with growth potential, such as technology and manufacturing [2][10]. Summary by Sections Current State of Pension System - The pension system in China has evolved into a multi-pillar structure, with the first pillar being the basic pension insurance, the second pillar consisting of enterprise and occupational annuities, and the third pillar being personal and commercial pension insurance [11][16]. - As of late 2024, the basic pension insurance has accumulated a surplus of 8.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.55% [13][15]. Enterprise Annuities - The enterprise annuity market has seen significant growth, with the investment operation scale reaching 3.64 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.11% [13][15]. - The number of enterprises establishing annuities peaked in 2014 and has since seen a decline in growth rate, indicating a potential stagnation in new enterprise participation [31][33]. Occupational Annuities - Occupational annuities have rapidly developed due to their mandatory nature, with a projected investment operation scale of 3.11 trillion yuan by 2024, growing at a rate of 21.48% [13][15]. - The occupational annuity system is characterized by a centralized management model, which enhances operational efficiency and market influence [2][10]. Investment Strategies - Annuity funds are increasingly entering the market, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation to achieve long-term value growth amidst challenges such as declining interest rates and reduced supply of non-standard assets [2][10]. - The report anticipates that the equity allocation in enterprise annuities will rise from the current 10%-15% to 20%-25%, potentially adding around 500 billion yuan in equity investments [2][10].