2026年资本市场年度策略展望：全球格局重构与“十五五”战略新机遇

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is the systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape [6][29][37] - The ongoing geopolitical competition and the shift in national power dynamics have elevated the strategic position of capital markets, reflecting long-term expectations of national strength and institutional stability rather than short-term profit fluctuations [7][41][43] Group 2 - The report identifies two key time points in 2026 regarding the Federal Reserve and US-China relations, which will significantly influence market dynamics [8][10][62] - The potential change in the Federal Reserve's leadership could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, impacting global liquidity and risk appetite in emerging markets, including A-shares [10][60][61] Group 3 - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in "debt management" and "expectation management," with a focus on stabilizing local government debt risks through asset securitization [12][46] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic, with accelerated rotation and the importance of retail investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator [12][46] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the significance of the AI industry, particularly in storage chips and humanoid robots, as key areas for investment due to their strategic importance in the AI era [20][22] - The focus on "反内卷" (anti-involution) will benefit upstream resources critical to national competitiveness, such as lithium and graphite materials, which are expected to see increased demand [22][23] Group 5 - The new consumption trends among younger generations are highlighted as structural opportunities, with sectors like gaming and pet products poised for growth [23] - The report suggests that safety asset allocations, such as high-dividend stocks and gold, will become increasingly attractive amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [24][25]