A股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202512）：大盘为主，先成长后价值-20251203

Market Outlook - The report emphasizes a preference for large-cap stocks in December, suggesting a potential shift from growth to value investing as the market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and significant domestic meetings at year-end [1][11] - Historical data indicates that from 2015 to 2024, large-cap stocks have shown a higher probability of outperforming small-cap stocks in December, with a 70% success rate for large-cap over small-cap [12][14] Liquidity and Capital Supply - The report anticipates stable net inflows of incremental capital in December, with foreign capital activity expected to increase [3][20] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, which is likely to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the market [20][21] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking, textiles, and petrochemicals are expected to perform well, while sectors that previously saw significant gains, like technology and automotive, may underperform [2][3] - The report highlights that sectors related to AI and technology are likely to attract new capital due to the issuance of several technology-focused funds in December [11][35] Investment Recommendations - Recommended indices for December include the CSI 300, STAR Market 50, low-volatility dividend indices, and technology indices related to Hong Kong stocks [12][11] - The report suggests that the performance of the CSI 300 and dividend indices is likely to be stronger in the latter half of December, coinciding with the earnings forecast period for listed companies [17][18]