“新三年行动”收官在：房价会影响明年价格水平回升吗

Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The willingness of residents to purchase homes has decreased, leading to a significant decline in the correlation between housing prices and overall price levels[1] - The average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has dropped by over 30% year-on-year since Q4[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index continues to decline but is still 48.63% higher than the level at the beginning of 2015, with first-tier cities seeing an increase of 85.16%[1] Group 2: Price Movements - New home prices fell by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year[1] - Second-hand home prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%, with a similar expansion in the decline[1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have remained at low levels, indicating a decoupling from housing prices since 2022[1] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weakening housing market has led to a decrease in consumer spending, as falling home prices do not affect income expectations for non-homeowners[1] - Financial asset price increases have partially offset the negative impact of declining housing prices on the wealth of homeowners[1] - Transfer income growth has alleviated the drag on resident income growth caused by falling housing prices, with transfer income increasing by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year[1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The data suggests that the influence of housing prices on inflation may be limited in the coming year, as the correlation between price levels and housing prices continues to decline[1] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global economic downturns[1]