2026年信用债年度投资策略：因势配置，控险取息

Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market in 2025 was characterized by a low interest rate environment, leading to limited trading space and strong credit bond allocation sentiment among institutions, with notable differentiation in performance across various bond types [3][4][12] - It is projected that in 2026, the fundamental and monetary conditions may not support a significant shift in the bond market, with credit risks primarily focusing on individual sentiment, and bond yields expected to maintain low volatility [3][4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high coupon opportunities in a fluctuating market, while also monitoring seasonal, rotational, and redemption-related fluctuations for potential allocation windows [3][4][12] Group 2 - The credit bond market is expected to see a structural shift in demand, with a tendency towards shorter-duration bonds, while the stability of liabilities may weaken marginally [3][4][12] - The supply of credit bonds is anticipated to remain stable, with net financing in 2026 projected to be similar to that of 2025, and a continued focus on industrial bonds as the main supply source [3][4][12] - The report identifies specific sectors such as local government financing vehicles, real estate, steel, and coal as areas of concern regarding credit risk, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of individual issuers' fundamentals [3][4][12] Group 3 - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests focusing on high coupon asset allocation, particularly in a challenging trading environment, with a preference for weaker quality local government bonds and other high-yielding assets [3][4][12] - The report outlines the significance of seasonal characteristics and redemption impacts on credit bond performance, indicating that the first quarter may present favorable allocation opportunities [3][4][12] - Structural opportunities are noted in the development of credit bond ETFs, which are expected to attract long-term capital inflows and present arbitrage opportunities [3][4][12]