固收+系列报告之六：固收+的新选择：公募REITs：扩围下的新机遇

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy dividends for public REITs are continuously released, with both horizontal expansion in asset types and vertical deepening in market development. The market is expected to expand 10 - 16 times in scale, reaching a value of 2.3 - 3.8 trillion yuan [1][26]. - Public REITs are high - dividend, quasi - fixed - income equity assets. Their average annual dividend rate in the past four years was 5.73%, higher than the 5.52% of the CSI Dividend Index, and they have a certain allocation advantage over stocks and bonds [2]. - The returns of public REITs combine bond and equity attributes. The investment return can be decomposed into dividend income and asset appreciation income. The annualized returns of the entire REITs market in the past one year, three years, and since inception are 23.66%, 3.24%, and 7.64% respectively [3]. - Public REITs are a stable choice for asset allocation during market fluctuations. They have a weak or extremely weak correlation with mainstream assets such as the CSI 300 and 10 - year treasury bonds, which can effectively hedge against the risk of single - asset fluctuations and fill the gap of medium - risk, stable - return assets between stocks and bonds [4]. Summary by Directory Policy Evolution: From Pilot Breakthrough to Full - scale Expansion - REITs in China have transformed from private to public and from debt - like to equity - like. Since the listing of the first batch of public REITs, policies from the central to local levels have promoted the market's expansion, capacity increase, and deepening [12]. - The policy has continuously expanded the underlying asset types of public REITs. Currently, the issuance scope covers 12 major industries and 52 asset types, with 18 asset types in 10 industries achieving their first - single listings. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting further expansion to more asset types such as urban renewal facilities and commercial office facilities [14]. - Public REITs can be divided into two types based on underlying asset types: property - based REITs and concession - based REITs, with different investment returns and risk characteristics [15]. Market Scale Outlook: A Trillion - yuan Blue Ocean, Ready to Take Off - The underlying assets of REITs are becoming more diverse. Although the current market scale is small and liquidity is weak, with the normalization of issuance, the market is expected to continue to expand [25]. - By referring to the REITs markets in the United States and Japan, and calculating based on GDP and listed company market value, it is estimated that the scale of the Chinese REITs market will be 2.3 - 3.8 trillion yuan, with 10 - 16 times expansion space compared to the current scale [26]. Investment Value: High - Dividend, Quasi - Fixed - Income Equity Assets - Public REITs are both equity - like and debt - like. Their secondary - market prices fluctuate with trading, and they have a mandatory dividend feature, which is their debt - like attribute [33]. - The average annual dividend rate of public REITs in the past four years was 5.73%, higher than the 5.52% of the CSI Dividend Index. The spread between the dividend rate of public REITs and the 10 - year treasury bond yield has been between 300 - 400BP in the past three years, showing a certain allocation advantage [2][34]. Return Decomposition: Dividend Income and Capital Gains - The investment return of public REITs combines bond and equity attributes, suitable for investors with medium risk tolerance seeking long - term stable returns. The return can be decomposed into dividend income and asset appreciation income [36]. - The average total return of listed public REITs reaches 17.21%, showing significant category differentiation. The annualized returns of the entire REITs market in the past one year, three years, and since inception are 23.66%, 3.24%, and 7.64% respectively [36][39]. - For US - listed REITs, the longer the investment period, the higher the proportion of dividend income. In the short - term (3 - year investment), 2/3 of the return comes from price increases, while in the long - term (15 - year investment), the proportion of dividend income rises to 2/3, and further increases to over 70% in 35 - 40 years [40]. Asset Comparison: Medium Risk - Return and Low Correlation with Other Assets - Since 2025, the CSI REITs Index has shown weak or extremely weak correlations with the CSI 300, 10 - year treasury bonds, gold, and CSI Dividend Stocks, with correlation coefficients of - 0.07, 0.14, 0.21, and 0.17 respectively [41]. - REITs are essential and advantageous in asset allocation. They can hedge against single - asset fluctuation risks and optimize the risk - return structure of the portfolio. They also fill the gap of medium - risk, stable - return assets between stocks and bonds, meeting the needs of medium - and long - term funds [43]. Investment Methods: Primary Market Subscription and Secondary Market Trading - The investment methods of REITs include primary market investment (subscription at the initial issuance or expansion stage) and secondary market investment (trading through stock accounts after listing). Currently, institutional investors are the main participants in the public REITs market and their proportion is increasing [50]. Primary Market: Centered on Dividends and Listing Premiums - Investors in the primary market are divided into strategic investors, offline investors, and public investors, with different requirements and characteristics. The subscription price is determined through offline investor inquiries [53]. - The average proportions of strategic investors, offline investors, and public investors in the initial issuance of various public REITs are 72%, 20%, and 9% respectively. The short - term return for primary - market subscribers comes from the difference between the subscription price and the secondary - market trading price [56]. - In 2025, the average first - day increase of newly - listed public REITs was 23%, significantly higher than the previous four years, due to policy improvement, supply - demand imbalance, and the decline in the returns of traditional investment products [58]. Secondary Market: Coexistence of Return Elasticity and Risks - The secondary - market performance of public REITs can be divided into six stages since the listing of the first batch. Currently, after a continuous five - month adjustment, the allocation value of REITs has significantly increased, and December is expected to be an important allocation window [62][66].