Ping An Securities·2025-12-03 14:54Core Insights - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite ongoing challenges in the market [1] - The real estate market in 2025 is characterized by an initial recovery followed by a decline, with high inventory levels and weak demand impacting overall performance [4][13] - The report anticipates that the supportive policies for the real estate market will continue into 2026, although market confidence will take time to recover [4][5] Market Review - In 2025, the national real estate market experienced a decline in sales, with a 9.6% year-on-year drop in sales amount from January to October, although the decline was less severe than in 2024 [13] - The second-hand housing market outperformed the new housing market, with a reported 8% increase in transactions for the top ten cities compared to a 10.5% decline in new homes [13][46] - The overall market remains in an adjustment phase, with supply-demand relationships still needing improvement [13] 2026 Outlook - Positive factors are expected to converge, leading to a gradual stabilization of the real estate market, particularly in core urban areas and quality housing [4][5] - The report predicts a 6% decline in sales area and an 8.5% decline in investment for 2026, reflecting ongoing market pressures [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The demand for "good houses" is projected to grow, with an average annual improvement demand of 590 million square meters from 2025 to 2030, representing 67% of total demand [4] - Quality real estate companies with strong land acquisition and product capabilities are expected to benefit first from the "good house" trend, with companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land highlighted as potential beneficiaries [5][6] - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a 20.3% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for the first ten months of 2025, presenting investment opportunities for Hong Kong-based real estate firms [4][5][52] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts for several key companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Poly Developments and China Overseas Development, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next few years [6][7] - Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property, are also recommended for investment consideration [5][6]