合成橡胶：短期事件驱动上行，上方空间收窄

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price of synthetic rubber is driven up by events, but the upside space is narrowing. In the medium - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals, and the high supply of butadiene rubber restricts the upside of prices. The fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure but show marginal improvement. The follow - up focus is on the price trend of butadiene in Asia and the change in the explicit inventory of butadiene rubber [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber main contract (01 contract), the daily closing price increased from 10,310 yuan/ton to 10,685 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 171,287 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,201 lots to 45,603 lots, and the trading volume was 901.657 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased from 140 to - 135, the monthly spread (BR12 - BR01) increased from - 95 to - 55. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene remained unchanged. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,550 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502 and 1712) increased by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 225 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 4.01 percentage points to 76.97%, the theoretical full cost remained unchanged at 9,813 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at 587 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - The domestic butadiene market rose slightly. Driven by the news of exports, the prices of butadiene and its main downstream products rose in tandem. However, some buyers were still cautious due to the expected fundamentals. The delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 7,450 - 7,550 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 7,000 - 7,100 yuan/ton [2] - As of November 26, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Due to sufficient supply of private resources and lack of cost - side driving factors, downstream buyers were determined to lower prices, and the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both increased [2][3]