宁证期货今日早评-20251203

Report on Investment Analysis of Multiple Commodities 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall commodity market shows a mixed trend with different commodities facing various supply - demand situations and market factors. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of shock, while others have short - term upward or downward trends [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased in the week ending November 28, 2025. There are peace negotiations and Putin's visit to India for business promotion. The market is oversupplied, suppressing price increases. It should be treated with a weak - shock outlook [1]. Silver - The market is awaiting the ADP November private - sector employment report. With an 89% expectation of a December Fed rate cut, silver has upward momentum but may face short - term callback pressure and is bullish in the medium term [2]. Bean Meal - Domestic spot prices vary. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, with high oil - mill crushing and slow de - stocking. The weak domestic breeding industry restricts demand. The 01 contract will likely remain in a shock pattern [4]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil exports in November decreased by 39.21% compared to the previous month. Although production decreased, exports were weak, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. The domestic market is quiet, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Live Pigs - The planned December hog slaughter of key provincial breeding enterprises increased by 3.20% compared to November. The market is oversupplied, and prices are weak. It is recommended to short at the right time and farmers should hedge [5]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank had a net capital injection in November. The long - term capital is in a net - injection state, and the bond market is in a shock range. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends [5]. Gold - Trump plans to announce the next Fed chair in early 2026. A potential dovish chair could boost risk appetite. Gold is expected to be in a short - term shock - bullish and medium - term high - level shock state [6]. Methanol - Northwest production signing increased, prices in Jiangsu rose, and capacity utilization increased. Port and enterprise inventories decreased. The 01 contract is expected to be shock - bullish in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or go long on callbacks [7]. Soda Ash - The price is stable, production decreased, and inventories decreased. The float - glass industry is weak. The 01 contract is expected to be in a shock state, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. PTA - Supply decreased more than expected, polyester start - up decline was postponed, and exports may increase. The short - term price is supported by the relatively good supply - demand structure [9]. Natural Rubber - Raw material prices decreased, global production increased, and consumption decreased. The bonded area continued to accumulate inventory, and the market is expected to be in a shock state [10]. PVC - The price increased slightly, capacity utilization rose, and inventory increased. Supply is high, demand is weak in the domestic off - season, and cost support is strong. The 01 contract is expected to be in a shock state, and it is advisable to wait and see or go long on callbacks [10][11].