铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, with an 89% probability priced in, and risk assets are strengthening. The A-share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. Precious metals show mixed trends, and copper, aluminum, and other industrial metals have different performance and outlooks based on supply - demand and macro - factors. Agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also affected by various factors and are expected to have different trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump will announce a new Fed chair early next year, with Hassett seen as the likely candidate, leading to expectations of a more dovish policy. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability is 89%. The US 10Y Treasury yield is 4.08%, and the US dollar index is at 99.2. There is no substantial progress in Russia - US talks on Ukraine. Attention is on US November service PMI, November ADP employment, and September industrial output data [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market adjusted with reduced volume, and is expected to be weak in the short - term. The bond market is weak, and the central bank's November net bond purchase of 500 billion yuan was lower than expected [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures fell 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce, and silver futures rose 1.2% to $59.15 per ounce. Trump's hint about the Fed chair and stable Japanese bond auctions affected the market. The US economic slowdown and dovish signals from the Fed boost the expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Central banks bought 53 tons of gold in October, a 36% increase. Silver's supply chain shows tight signs. Pay attention to the US ADP data and the PCE index [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - The copper price fell. The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the rate - cut cycle by the end of 2026, and the Fed will cut rates twice next year. Supply shortages limit the downside. New projects are being developed, such as a large - scale copper smelter in Africa and a potential joint - venture project in Canada. The copper price is expected to remain high and volatile, with support at $11000 for LME copper [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price was high and volatile. The OECD's economic outlook and inflation data in the eurozone affect the market. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is 87%. Aluminum production capacity is stable, and consumption is resilient. The aluminum price is expected to be range - bound [8][9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price was weak. Supply is abundant, and imports are flowing in, with high inventory. A factory's maintenance may provide some support, but more production cuts are needed to stop the decline [11]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast - aluminum price is expected to be strong. Terminal demand is good due to year - end work and policy support, and the cost is well - supported [12]. 3.7 Zinc - The zinc price is expected to be strong within a range. Supply is expected to decrease by 2.43 tons in December due to raw - material shortages and refinery cuts. However, the consumption off - season and high prices limit the upside [13]. 3.8 Lead - The lead price rebounded. Supply is marginally reduced, and the new e - bike standard may boost consumption. But the open import window and high overseas inventory limit the upside [14][15]. 3.9 Tin - The tin price is likely to rise. The market sentiment is improved, and supply concerns are increasing. It is expected to be strong, waiting for macro and micro factors to align [16]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is shrinking, and demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased to 550,000 tons [17][18]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel price is expected to be volatile. Spot trading is stable, and the supply - demand drive is limited. Some areas have shortages, and the overall inventory is reasonable [19][20]. 3.12 Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is under pressure. The first shipment from Simandou has been made, and supply is increasing while demand is weakening due to steel - mill losses and reduced blast - furnace operations [21][22]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be weak. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and supply is strong while demand is weak in the steel - making industry [23]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be volatile. The US is seeking to expand soybean demand. South American weather and US soybean exports are key factors. Canadian and Australian rapeseed production forecasts have changed [24][25]. 3.15 Palm Oil - The palm - oil price is expected to be range - bound. The impact of weather on supply is decreasing, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report. Malaysian exports decreased in November, while Indian imports increased [26][27].