国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251203

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Accelerating the sprint and reaching a new high [2]. - Copper: Strong spot prices support the price [2]. - Zinc: There is support at the lower level [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to seek the bottom [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Trading in a narrow range [2]. - Palladium: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with potential for an upward movement [2]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is trading at a low level [2]. - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost factors limit the downside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Silver 2512 increased by 1.05% and 4.46% respectively, and the trading volumes of Comex Gold 2512 and Silver 2512 also increased significantly [4]. - ETF and Inventory: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased, and the inventory of Shanghai Gold and Silver decreased [4]. - Spread and Arbitrage: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper decreased slightly, and the trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased [8]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased, and the inventory of London Copper increased. The spreads between different copper contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [8]. - Industry News: The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026, and the copper premium provided by Codelco to US customers has reached a record high [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased, and the trading volume of London Zinc increased [11]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased, and the inventory of London Zinc increased. The spreads between different zinc contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [14]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased, and the trading volume of both increased [15]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Lead and London Lead decreased. The spreads between different lead contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Tin increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The closing price of London Tin decreased slightly [18]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased slightly, and the inventory of London Tin remained unchanged. The spreads between different tin contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [18]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy contracts showed different trends, and the trading volumes also changed [21]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged, and the spreads between different contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [21]. - Industry News: The market is facing challenges such as power shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, and the global central banks' interest rate cuts are expected to end next year [23]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating neutral trends [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of platinum and palladium contracts showed different trends, and the trading volumes also changed [25]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of NYMEX platinum remained unchanged, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of platinum and palladium are both 0, indicating neutral trends [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel and Stainless Steel contracts increased slightly, and the trading volumes decreased [29]. - Industry News: The Indonesian government has taken a series of measures that may affect the nickel market, and the production of some nickel wet - process projects will be reduced [29][32]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating neutral trends [33].