利率:利率买债500亿元?还是要关注底色
CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-03 02:20
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's purchase of 50 billion yuan of bonds fell short of expectations, leading to corresponding market trading and continued adjustment in the bond market. However, regardless of the central bank's bond - buying and reverse - repurchase withdrawals, attention should be focused on the "underlying situation." The capital interest rate has officially broken through the oscillation range downward, so there is no need to be pessimistic about the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 How to View the 50 Billion Yuan of Treasury Bond Transactions? - The market had high expectations for the scale of treasury bond transactions under the background of consecutive days of decline in the bond market. The 5 billion yuan of treasury bond transactions fell short of market expectations. Although the capital interest rate, especially DR001, had dropped below 1.3% in the early trading yesterday, the market did not trade on the positive news of the capital. Instead, long - term bonds tended to decline. After the 5 billion yuan of bond - buying was finalized, the interest rate stabilized, indicating that some investors' expectations for the central bank's bond - buying in November had been continuously lowered [3][8]. 3.2 Pay Attention to the Underlying Situation of Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank's treasury bond transactions are beneficial to capital first and then to the supply - demand relationship in the bond market. From the perspective of liquidity injection, the capital price has made a breakthrough after the treasury bond transactions. The performance of liquidity can be measured from both quantity and price aspects, and price is more important. Since the end of November, the capital interest rate has started to decline, with DR001 breaking through 1.31% and continuing to decline in December, which may be a further indication of monetary policy. Even though the central bank's 5 billion yuan of bond - buying fell short of expectations, it is still recommended to focus on the "underlying situation" as price is more important than quantity [4][12].