集运日报：回撤或已到位，主力合约连续反弹，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position trial long and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The current core is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract has had a seasonal rebound, suggesting a light - position participation [4]. - With the mixed long and short information, including some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Freight Index - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - In October, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7. The Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, and the predicted value was - 8.5 [3]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In October, the US's S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the closing price of the main contract 2602 was 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%. The trading volume was 24,700 lots, and the open interest was 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1,882 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: The main contract has rebounded after retracement, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. It is recommended for risk - takers to take a small - position trial long on the main contract. Do not add more positions when the market dives slightly, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position trial [5]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5].