渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.04）-20251204

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]