中信期货晨报：国内商品期货跌多涨少，碳酸锂跌幅居前-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economy is in a low - speed adjustment phase, with consumer K - shaped development and cooling employment. The interest - rate cut expectation has shifted from "expectation guidance" to "data confirmation". The "Hassett transaction" has strengthened the market's re - evaluation of the future policy framework, improving global financial conditions. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major asset allocation in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December [7]. - Domestic: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, with the joint promotion of policy - based financial instruments and special bonds, the forward - looking indices for enterprise investment and recruitment have significantly rebounded. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The construction business activity index also increased. Overall, the domestic economy maintains a weak - stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is strengthening [7]. - Asset Allocation: In the fourth quarter, the overall asset - allocation idea remains unchanged. The macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Market Performance of Various Assets - Stock Index Futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures showed different degrees of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes, with the CSI 300 futures up 15.23% this year [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures also had different price changes and yield fluctuations [4]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate, etc. showed various trends [4]. - Interest Rates: The yields of domestic and US bonds, interest - rate spreads, and inflation - related rates also had different changes [4]. - Industry Indices: Different industries such as transportation, non - ferrous metals, and coal had different levels of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes [4]. - Commodity Futures: Energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. all had their own price trends and volatility [4][5]. 3.2 Short - term Judgment of Various Assets - Financial Sector: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate during the short - term adjustment phase [8]. - Shipping Sector: The freight rate of container shipping on the European route is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Black Building Materials Sector: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector: Copper, aluminum, lead, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while nickel is expected to fall in a volatile manner [8]. - Energy and Chemical Sector: Crude oil, LPG, etc. are expected to fluctuate, while some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fall in a volatile manner [10]. - Agricultural Sector: Most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are expected to fluctuate, and the price of natural rubber is expected to return to a narrow - range fluctuation [10].