136号文如何影响光伏项目

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - With the implementation of Document No. 136, most regions expect a decline in PV project prices and IRR, and actual auction results vary significantly. The highest mechanism-based prices are in central-south provinces, but their markets are dominated by distributed projects with limited grid - connected capacity. Shandong's incremental project expected returns are low, while those in the northwest and southwest are relatively high, leaving room for capacity growth in these regions. Eastern seaboard expansion may slow down. China's PV installation is not solely return - driven, and local government plans also play a direct role. Adding energy storage can hedge against return decline, and solar - plus - storage projects have broad development prospects [2][3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mechanism - based Electricity 3.1.1 Existing Projects - The mechanism - based electricity volume ratio of existing projects varies greatly among regions. In Hunan, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Guizhou, it ranges from 80% - 100%. In most northwest regions, it's determined by hourly counts or set at a lower ratio. Some regions implement differentiated management, with distributed, older, and wind power projects generally having higher ratios [9][34] 3.1.2 Incremental Projects - Individual incremental projects can lock in 80 - 90% of their annual grid - delivered output at the regulated mechanism - based price, but the overall coverage ratio is low. Inner Mongolia offers no additional mechanism - based volume, and Xinjiang and Ningxia keep the share low. Hunan, Liaoning, Jilin, and Guizhou reserve 20%, 55%, 40%, and 77% respectively, while Hainan has higher rates [10][35] 3.2 Mechanism - based Price 3.2.1 Existing Projects - Most provinces' mechanism - based prices for existing projects are pegged to the local coal - fire benchmark price, with an average of CNY 0.3591/kWh. The price level order is southeast coastal > southwest > northeast/north > northwest [12][37] 3.2.2 Incremental Projects - The upper bound of the mechanism - based electricity price for incremental projects is generally close to that of existing projects, with an average of CNY 0.3426/kWh, a 4.8% discount. The lower bound averages CNY 0.1727/kWh (CNY 0.1989/kWh excluding Inner Mongolia), about 44.6% below that of existing projects. The price level order is southeast coastal > southwest/northeast/north > northwest [13][14][38] 3.3 Regional Situation 3.3.1 Shandong - The share of incremental mechanism - based PV projects in Shandong might be lower than 20%, higher for centralized projects. 1.265 GW of PV capacity is qualified in the first - round bidding, with a mechanism - based electricity volume of 1.248 TWh. The coverage ratio is about 30 - 40% in terms of electricity and 10 - 20% in terms of installed capacity [21][22][43] 3.3.2 Xinjiang - The share of incremental mechanism - based PV projects in Xinjiang is relatively high. 3.6 TWh of PV mechanism - based electricity volume has been allocated to 31 projects (19 centralized). It corresponds to about 14.3 GW of installed capacity, and the coverage ratio is high considering the 2025 H1 new PV installation [23][44] 3.3.3 Gansu - Gansu's wind and PV plants bid together. The first round awards 0.83 TWh for 2025 H2 projects, and the second reserves 1.52 TWh for 2026 projects. The share of incremental mechanism - based PV projects is expected to be 10 - 15% [26][48] 3.3.4 Others - Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong have completed their first bidding rounds. Yunnan didn't disclose the mechanism - admitted electricity volume. Jiangxi allocated 131 GWh to PV projects (5 - 10% coverage), and Guangdong placed 4.65 TWh under the mechanism. Selected projects in Guangdong and Jiangxi are mainly distributed systems [28][49]