对俄罗斯供应担忧重燃，能化延续震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to experience weak and volatile trends, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - In December, the fundamentals of the energy and chemical market are expected to be weak, and the rebound space is limited. Attention should be focused on geopolitical disturbances [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure persists. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace terms is still uncertain, and the situation in the Caribbean region is also highly unpredictable. EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased slightly in the week of November 28, and the refinery operating rate continued to rise [8]. - Asphalt: After the asphalt futures price fell below the normal range, it is expected to recover towards the spot price. The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. The three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the demand is still relatively low [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is also in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, the current valuation is relatively low and it follows the movement of crude oil [11]. - PX: In the short term, the cost guidance is limited, and the profit is strong under the independent logic of PX. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is relatively resistant to decline [12]. - PTA: The market lacks new driving forces and follows the cost fluctuations. The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to show inventory reduction, and the price is expected to follow the upstream PX to fluctuate slightly upward [12]. - Pure Benzene: The price fluctuates mainly, with improved expectations but still under pressure in reality. The inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate significantly, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation in December [14]. - Styrene: The liquidity is slightly tight, and the price fluctuates slightly upward. The port inventory decreased in November, and the actual available inventory is lower than the total inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but the market has already priced in the inventory accumulation pressure [15]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The domestic supply - demand pattern has not significantly weakened, but the expectations suppress the market sentiment. The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile range [16]. - Short - Fiber: The upstream cost provides support, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates slightly upward. The terminal demand is difficult to improve substantially in the short term [19]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The price volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere declines slightly. The price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support [20]. - Methanol: The expected unloading volume in coastal areas is high, and the supply - demand in inland areas provides phased support. The price fluctuates and consolidates [22]. - Urea: The off - season storage is progressing steadily, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates. The supply remains at a high level, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is limited [23]. - LLDPE (Plastic): The supply - demand pattern does not show a significant weakening, but expectations suppress sentiment. The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile range [24]. - PP: The oil price rebounds slightly, and the price fluctuates. The focus is on the changes in maintenance and the supply - demand situation [25]. - PL: The spot price is relatively strong, and the price fluctuates. The supply device has a restart expectation, and the buying is mainly for rigid demand [26]. - PVC: The valuation is low, and the expectations are weak. The price is cautiously bearish. The high inventory is difficult to reduce smoothly, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts [28]. - Caustic Soda: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price fluctuates weakly. The supply - demand situation is pessimistic, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - Period Spread: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical varieties show different trends, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.42 (+0.02), and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 36 (-6) [31]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse receipt situations, for example, the basis of asphalt is - 2 (-46), and the warehouse receipt is 6060 [33]. - Inter - Variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads also vary, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 2 (-16), and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 908 (+33) [35]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part mainly monitors the basis and spreads of specific chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given text [36][48][60]. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index is 2270.14 (-0.22%), the commodity 20 index is 2587.91 (-0.13%), and the industrial product index is 2219.45 (-0.41%) [277]. - Energy Index: On December 3, 2025, the energy index is 1117.42, with a daily decline of 1.10%, a 5 - day increase of 0.19%, a 1 - month decline of 4.17%, and a year - to - date decline of 9.00% [279].