中信期货新能源属每报告：仓单偏紧，多晶硅领涨新能源金属

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The new energy metals market is characterized by tight warehouse receipts, with polysilicon leading the rise. Lithium carbonate supply and demand both increase, maintaining a tight pattern. Industrial silicon and polysilicon supply - demand tend to loosen, but low polysilicon warehouse receipts strongly support the near - term. In the short - to - medium term, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's restrictions on lithium carbonate positions and increased intraday flat - today handling fees negatively affected investor sentiment. After the short - term shock, lithium carbonate entered a shock consolidation phase, while polysilicon with tight warehouse receipts was relatively strong. In the long term, there is a strong expectation of supply contraction in the silicon industry, especially for polysilicon, whose price center may rise. Lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, but demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus in supply and demand is narrowing, so the long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Information Analysis - According to SMM data, the spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 in East China and 421 in East China are 9500 yuan/ton and 9800 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon is 448,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. As of November 2025, the monthly domestic production of industrial silicon is 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November, the cumulative production is 3.871 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export is 607,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3% [6]. Main Logic - On the supply side, as the dry season approaches in the southwest, production and operation rates declined rapidly in November, and most southwest silicon plants entered shutdown maintenance. In December, southwest supply is expected to decline slightly, while northwest supply fluctuates slightly. On the demand side, in November, the dry - season production cut in the southwest polysilicon industry led to a decline in demand for industrial silicon. If the organic silicon industry implements production cuts in December, demand will also decline, and the demand for aluminum alloy has limited growth. Industrial silicon inventory still faces accumulation pressure and remains at a high level [6]. Outlook - If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken further, and the inventory accumulation pressure may increase. However, short - term market sentiment is volatile, and after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the quantity is currently low, so the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate [6]. 2. Polysilicon Information Analysis - According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining the same week - on - week. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 1550 lots, unchanged from the previous value. In October, China's polysilicon exports were about 1547.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58%. From January to October 2025, the total exports were 20,215 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 33%. In October, imports were about 1446 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.1%. From January to October 2025, imports were 16,123 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 52.26%. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity was 252.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.5% [6][7]. Main Logic - On the supply side, as the dry season arrives, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest gradually decreases, and the production in November dropped below 120,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, the constraints of the anti - involution policy on polysilicon supply need to be monitored. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate was significantly high from January to May, but it overdrafted the second - half - year demand. Since June, the monthly installation volume has declined, and in November, the demand for polysilicon gradually weakened. Overall, although the demand for polysilicon is declining marginally, the supply is also shrinking during the dry season, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution policy, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10]. Outlook - The anti - involution policy can significantly boost the polysilicon price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Information Analysis - On December 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract (LC2605) decreased by 3% to 93,660 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the total open interest decreased by 15,040 lots to 1,063,867 lots. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 91,900 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 1180 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 660 lots to 9652 lots. In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 28%. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a month - on - month increase of 493%. From January to November 2025, the total export of lithium sulfate was 82,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [10][11]. Main Logic - Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, and there are differences in the production plan for December, but the inventory is still being depleted. The resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo is being hyped again, which may cause price fluctuations. On the supply side, the domestic monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise in November, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. It is expected to remain strong in December. On the demand side, the apparent demand is good, and the production plan in the off - season in December only decreased slightly. The social inventory continues to be depleted, and it is expected to continue in December. If Jiaxiaowo can resume production soon, the supply - demand situation may turn loose in late December [12]. Outlook - In the short term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 4. Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content 5. Commodity Indexes - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2270.14, a decrease of 0.22%. The Commodity 20 Index was 2587.91, a decrease of 0.13%. The industrial products index was 2219.45, a decrease of 0.41%. The new energy commodity index on December 3, 2025, was 448.05, with a daily decline of 0.96%, a decline of 0.47% in the past 5 days, an increase of 9.22% in the past month, and an increase of 8.65% since the beginning of the year [53][55].