ADP就业疲弱，?银延续震荡?强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, precious metals maintained a volatile and upward trend, with significant high - level fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment in the US increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the expectation of loose liquidity still dominated the market. The overall logical environment is conducive to the rise of precious metals this month, and in the long - term, the decline of the US dollar credit will drive the upward trend of precious metals. [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - The cooling of the US labor market exceeded expectations. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90%. [2] - The US import and export price indices in September were flat month - on - month, with the import price index rising 0.3% year - on - year and the export price index rising 3.8% year - on - year. [2] - US President Trump mentioned that Kevin Hassett is a potential Fed chairman. [2] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the US economy will achieve "real wage growth" and "low - inflation growth" and return to 4% growth in 2026. [2] Price Logic - Short - term: Precious metals were volatile and upward on Wednesday, with large fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the loose liquidity expectation dominated the market. [1][3] - Medium - term: This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving force. With the approaching Fed chairman nomination, the relatively dovish Hassett has the highest popularity, and the period from nomination to taking office may see the smoothest trading of loose liquidity expectations and Fed independence. The spot - end driving force for silver remains, and the squeeze - out trading is spreading. [3] - Long - term: The long - term upward trend of precious metals is driven by the contraction of the US dollar credit. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion may lead to a mild economic recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. [3] Outlook - This week, the range of the London gold spot is expected to be between $4,000 and $4,400 per ounce, and the range of the London silver spot is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce. [3] Commodity Index - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41%. [43] - The precious metal index on December 3, 2025, was 3506.69, with a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day increase of 4.03%, a 1 - month increase of 9.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 58.50%. [45]