国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends of various black - series commodities on December 4, 2025. It indicates that iron ore has limited downstream demand and high valuation. For products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal, the market is in a state of multi - empty game and wide - range oscillation. Logs are in a low - level oscillation state [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the futures contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The position decreased by 23,770 lots. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore such as Carajás fines decreased, while the price of some domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values also changed [4] - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing improved economic sentiment [4] - Trend Strength: -1, indicating a bearish view [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,137 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase; the closing price of HC2601 was 3,319 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease. Positions for both decreased. Spot prices in some regions changed, and basis and spread values also had corresponding fluctuations [8] - News: In the week of November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.21 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased. In October 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in some indicators. Import and export data of steel also had corresponding changes [9][10] - Trend Strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was 5446 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spread values also had corresponding changes [12] - News: On December 3, 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. In November, the electricity price for ferrosilicon production in Qinghai continued to rise, increasing corporate losses. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and the import and export data of South African and Japanese silicomanganese also changed [13][15] - Trend Strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal contract was 1070.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a 2.4% decrease; the closing price of the J2601 coke contract was 1624.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease. Spot prices and basis and spread values changed [16] - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing improved economic sentiment [17] - Trend Strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17] Logs - Price and Trading Data: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts had corresponding changes, and the prices of various types of logs in different regions were relatively stable [19] - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing improved economic sentiment [21] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral view [21]