国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range trading temporarily [2] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, mainly oscillating [2] - Soybean meal: US soybeans are waiting for Chinese purchases, and Dalian soybean meal is oscillating [2] - Soybean: Stable spot prices, and the futures market is still oscillating [2] - Corn: Operating in an oscillatory manner [2] - Sugar: Operating weakly [2] - Cotton: Both supply and demand are strong [2] - Eggs: The volume of culling has increased, and the sentiment for replenishing chicks has also strengthened [2] - Pigs: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic is returning [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures were presented. For example, the palm oil main contract had a daytime closing price of 8,730 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase, and a night - session closing price of 8,716 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% decrease [4]. - News: Due to the decline in exports in November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory soared to the highest level in more than six years, increasing by 10% from the previous month to 2.71 million tons, 47% higher than a year ago [5]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - Fundamentals: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and basis of DCE soybean, DCE soybean meal, CBOT soybean, and CBOT soybean meal were provided. For instance, DCE soybean 2601 had a daytime closing price of 4139 yuan/ton with a + 0.29% increase [11]. - News: On December 3, CBOT soybean futures closed down as the market awaited news of new US soybean sales. The US Treasury Secretary said China would fulfill its commitment to buy 1.2 billion tons of soybeans by the end of February 2026, and some analysts worried about the impact of Brazil's record - high soybean harvest [11][13]. Corn - Fundamentals: Information on important spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of corn was given. For example, the C2601 contract had a daytime closing price of 2,259 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase [15]. - News: The northern corn bulk shipping port collection price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou bulk shipping price increased by 20 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were strong, while some North China corn prices were under pressure [16]. Sugar - Fundamentals: Data on the prices, price spreads, and basis of raw sugar, mainstream spot sugar, and futures sugar were presented. For example, the raw sugar price was 14.92 cents/pound with a - 0.05% change [18]. - News: As of the end of November, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased significantly. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year. China's sugar imports in October were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [18]. Cotton - Fundamentals: Information on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and price spreads of cotton futures and related products was provided. For example, the CF2601 contract had a daytime closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% decrease [23]. - News: Cotton spot trading increased slightly, and the mainstream basis changed little. The trading of pure - cotton yarn was average, and some spinning mills producing low - count yarns reduced their operating rates [24]. Eggs - Fundamentals: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, price spreads, and spot prices of egg futures were given. For example, the egg 2601 contract had a closing price of 3,138 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 2.40% decrease [29]. - No specific news was provided other than the fundamentals. Pigs - Fundamentals: Information on the spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of pigs was presented. For example, the Henan spot price was 11,280 yuan/ton with a - 50 yuan/ton change [32]. - No specific news was provided other than the fundamentals. Peanuts - Fundamentals: Data on the spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of peanuts were given. For example, the PK601 contract had a closing price of 8,052 yuan/ton with a - 0.89% decrease [35]. - News: In the spot market, the prices in most regions of Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were stable or slightly weak, and the trading volume was not large [36].