中泰期货晨会纪要-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trend of some futures varieties is judged, including trend short, oscillating with a downward bias, oscillating, oscillating with an upward bias, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of some futures varieties are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish [7]. - A series of macro - economic and policy news are reported, such as the successful maiden flight of China's Zhuque - 3 reusable launch vehicle, the significant decline in the US "small non - farm" data in November, and the adjustment of China's stock market rating by JPMorgan [9][10]. - For different futures sectors, specific investment strategies and market outlooks are provided, such as the stock index futures with an oscillating strategy and the bond futures with a wide - range oscillating trend [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's independently developed reusable launch vehicle Zhuque - 3 had a successful maiden flight, marking a new milestone in China's commercial space industry [9]. - The US November "small non - farm" data showed a significant decline, with private enterprises reducing 32,000 jobs, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90% [9]. - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrading [9]. - JPMorgan upgraded its rating of the Chinese stock market from "neutral" to "overweight" and expected the MSCI China Index to have a 19% upside potential in the base case [10]. 3.2 Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to adopt an oscillating approach and wait and see. The A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12%. The market turnover was 1.68 trillion yuan. The AI application and lithium - battery sectors led the decline, while the coal and pharmaceutical commerce sectors were active. The weak economic data and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut are important factors affecting the market [13]. Bond Futures - The bond market may continue to maintain a wide - range oscillating trend, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve. The recent decline in the bond market is mainly affected by the redemption of public bond funds, and the 10 - year medium - short - duration bonds can be considered for buying on dips, while the ultra - long - duration bonds should be treated with caution [14]. 3.3 Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, attention should be paid to the spirit of the Politburo meeting at the beginning of December and the Central Economic Work Conference in the middle of the month. Fundamentally, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is relatively good. The supply side may see a decline in iron - water production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The steel price is likely to remain weak in the medium - term. In the short term, the steel and ore markets will oscillate, and in the long - term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production and safety supervision of coal mines and the change in downstream iron - water production. The supply of coking coal may be restricted by safety supervision at the end of the year, but in the short term, the supply may increase, and the weak demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk will restrict the price [18]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, due to the uncertainty of cost factors and the discount in the futures price, if the price falls back to the previous low, the daily output may decline. For silicomanganese, the short - term strength of the futures price is due to the price support of manganese ore, but the supply of manganese ore may increase, and the long - term over - supply situation is the main logic. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese on rallies, and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of long ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it can be tried to go long on dips in the short term and exit flexibly when the sentiment changes. The supply of soda ash may be affected by production reduction and new capacity, and the supply of glass may be adjusted due to cold - repair expectations [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, and the export window has been opened. The zinc price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short on rallies. The price is affected by the Fed's policy and international geopolitics, and the decline in domestic processing fees supports the price [23]. Shanghai Lead - The social inventory of lead has decreased to a one - month low. The supply of lead is tight in some regions, and the demand from battery enterprises is improving. It is recommended to hold short positions with caution [23]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price will oscillate widely. The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, but the long - term demand for lithium is still good, which supports the price [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not yet recovered. The high cost supports the Zhengzhou cotton to oscillate and rebound. The USDA's supply and demand report is bearish, and the domestic cotton supply is abundant, while the demand is weak [29][30]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the price, and the cost supports the price to limit the decline. It is recommended to wait and see or short in the short term [31]. Eggs - The near - month contracts are expected to oscillate. The 01 contract can consider stopping losses on short positions and waiting and seeing. The 02 and 03 contracts may be under pressure in the short term, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory but are at a relatively high valuation, so it is recommended to wait and see [33][34]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The apple storage is almost finished, and the出库 has started. The spot price is stable, but the sales are affected by the increase in the supply of citrus fruits [35]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the port collection situation and the upper pressure on the futures price. The short - term 01 contract may maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts may be weaker [35][36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price oscillates [37]. Pigs - In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is weak. The spot price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month contracts and pay attention to risk control [37][38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The EIA inventory has increased, and the market has returned to the fundamental analysis. The US sanctions on Russian oil exports have changed the supply expectation, but the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to an oversupply situation. The oil price is in a long - term downward trend, and the short - term rebound space is limited [40]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is affected by geopolitics and the macro - economy. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It will follow the oil price fluctuations [41]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak demand, so they will oscillate weakly. The upstream production losses may provide some support, and it is recommended for industrial customers to hedge in time [44]. Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. The short - term trend is weakening, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [45]. Synthetic Rubber - After the market sentiment subsides, it will oscillate. If there is a rebound, short positions can be tried with a stop - loss [46]. Methanol - The near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate bullishly. If the inventory is reduced smoothly, a slightly bullish configuration can be considered [47]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda continues to decline, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious improvement. It is recommended to adopt a short - term oscillating strategy and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [48]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand structure of the polyester industry chain is generally stable, and the price is driven by cost. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short PF and the reverse spread of ethylene glycol [50]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG price has fallen from a high level. Although it is relatively strong, the price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short on rallies [51]. Pulp - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, take profits on long positions when the delivery profit is obvious, or short the delivery profit by buying spot and selling futures [52]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price has decreased. The inventory is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be under pressure [54]. Urea - The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. The futures price is expected to move up this week [54].