甲醇日评：继续上行空间或有限-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The upward space of the methanol 01 contract is very limited. The reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and if the methanol price rises further, it may lead to downstream parking and negative feedback on demand. Also, the downstream replenishment willingness is not strong due to profit levels and relatively high inventory, and the poor inland profit restricts the performance of inland methanol prices [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 was 2128.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan or -0.19% from the previous day; MA05 was 2214.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan or -0.81%; MA09 was 2215.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan or -0.58% [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In太仓, it was 2112.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or -0.47%; in Shandong, 2225.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or -0.45%; in Guangdong, 2095.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or -0.48%; in Shaanxi, 1997.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan or 0.13%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, 2175.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hubei, 2225.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, 2007.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - The difference between Taicang spot and MA: -15.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Coal and Natural Gas Prices - Coal spot prices: The price of Buwaterduosi Q5500 was 585.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan or -0.43%; Datong Q5500 was 655.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yulin Q6000 was 660.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan or -0.75% [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot, it was 3.16 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; in Chongqing, 3.14 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol was 248.10 yuan/ton, up 6.30 yuan or 2.61%; natural gas - based methanol was -1160.00 yuan/ton, up 110.00 yuan or 8.66% [1]. - Downstream MTO profit: Northwest MTO was -243.40 yuan/ton, down 28.80 yuan or -13.42%; East China MTO was -838.07 yuan/ton, down 23.50 yuan or -2.88% [1]. - Other downstream product profits: Acetic acid was 590.94 yuan/ton, up 6.85 yuan or 1.17%; MTBE was 274.12 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan or -15.43%; formaldehyde was -308.40 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yiquge was 318.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock, opening at 2130 yuan/ton, closing at 2128 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 996,300 lots and an open interest of 948,400 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign information: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the operating load of the remaining plants is not high. The daily methanol output in this country has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Hold the short put option on the 01 contract until expiration [1].