贵金属日评：美联储未来降息预期支撑贵金属价格-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future interest rate cut expectations support precious metal prices. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. The supply - demand expectations of platinum and palladium are different, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors such as interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - Shanghai Gold: On December 3, 2025, the closing price was 956.70 yuan/g, the trading volume was 273,359.00, and the inventory was 90,873.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 9.54 yuan/g, and the trading volume decreased by 26,737.00 [1] - Shanghai Silver: The closing price of the futures active contract was 13,423.00 yuan/ten - gram, the trading volume was 2,664,403.00, and the inventory was 626,633.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 159.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume increased by 2,464,589.00 [1] - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the futures active contract was 4,133.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 169,613.00, and the inventory was 36,573,657.72 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 101.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 42,456.00 [1] - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the futures active contract was 58.93 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 107,261.00, and the inventory was 455,933,737.28 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price decreased by 0.22 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 4,787.00 [1] 3.2 Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Fed Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residency limit for regional Fed presidents, saying that tariffs could be re - structured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM services PMI expansion speed was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Multi - empty Logic: US economic and employment data in November were mixed, disturbing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. But the probability of a December rate cut was still over 80%. Fiscal stimulus policies in multiple countries led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits, and central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - Trading Strategy: Buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 890 - 920 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 970 - 1,000 yuan/g. Similar support and resistance levels are provided for silver [1] 3.4 Platinum - Multi - empty Logic: Supply is affected by high mining costs, unstable power supply, etc., and demand is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards. The supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026. However, the expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. Consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce. For domestic platinum, the support level is around 335 - 385 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/g [1] 3.5 Palladium - Multi - empty Logic: Supply is affected by mining difficulties but may increase due to vehicle scrapping. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026. Interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes may lead to price adjustments [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce. For domestic palladium, the support level is around 305 - 357 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/g [1]