上方承压：工业硅&多晶硅日评20251204-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure above the silicon price. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1] - The willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory is limited, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which suppresses the upward space of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the subsequent launch of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon rose 0.51% to 9,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.61% to 8,920 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the suspension of production of silicon enterprises in the southwest production period has basically been implemented, and the start - up is at a low level within the year. The start - up in the north is relatively stable. It is expected that the output of industrial silicon in December will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production - reduction mechanism, and the demand for industrial silicon may weaken. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is limited [1] Investment Strategy - The overall situation is a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pressure above the silicon price. The trading strategy is range operation [1] Polysilicon Price Changes - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained flat. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.98% to 57,430 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, but some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November will decrease to about 120,000 tons. On the demand side, the prices in the industrial chain are under pressure to decline. Although the polysilicon price is still firm, the market transactions are relatively light, with few new transactions, and the downstream has strong resistance to high - price resources [1] Investment Strategy - The overall situation is that the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which suppresses the upward space of the futures price. The trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1] Other Information - In October 2025, the import of complete vehicles was 43,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The import amount was $2 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. From January to October 2025, the import of complete vehicles was 404,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30%, and the import amount was $20.25 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 38.3% [1] - Germany's Jülich Research Center announced that its developed silver - free heterojunction (HJT) solar cell achieved a world - record efficiency of 23.08% using a full - copper (Cu) metallization process. Compared with the benchmark device using full - silver (Ag) metallization, the efficiency only decreased by 0.4% [1]