能源化工日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet expanding, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the potential bullish factor of Iranian plant shutdown has materialized, and the market is expected to bottom out in the short - term. However, high supply will limit its upward space, and it's recommended to wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for the inter - month spread [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply high and demand improving, it's advisable to consider long positions at low prices [5]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended, with either waiting and seeing or short - term trading. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is poor, but with short - term low valuation and cost increase, a mid - term short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point occurs, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - demand situation to change in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, expect a slight inventory build - up in December, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [28]. - For PTA, pay attention to long - buying opportunities based on expectations, as the supply is expected to stabilize and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.15% decline, at 448.10 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories all increased week - on - week [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is small with supply not expanding, short - term oil prices should not be overly shorted. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang decreased by 10, remained stable in Lunan, and increased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 4 yuan, at 2128 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 14, at - 86 [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The potential bullish factor of Iranian plant shutdown has materialized, and the market is expected to bottom out in the short - term. Supply is expected to remain high, limiting its upward space. Wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for the inter - month spread [4]. Urea - Market Information: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, increased by 10 in Henan, and by 20 in Hubei. The 01 contract increased by 5 yuan, at 1692 yuan, with a basis of - 22. The spread increased by 9, at - 56 [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. Supply remains high, and demand has improved. Consider long positions at low prices [5]. Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices declined. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas receded, reducing potential bullish factors. Exchange RU inventory and warehouse receipts are low. The fundamental driving force is weakening, and it follows macro - fluctuations. There are different views from bulls and bears. Tire factory operating rates are weak, and inventories have increased. Social inventories of natural rubber have increased [9][10][11][12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Adopt a neutral approach, either wait and see or engage in short - term trading. Hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract decreased by 34 yuan, at 4541 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, at 4500 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 41 (increased by 24). The 1 - 5 spread was - 273 (increased by 5). The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall operating rate increased. Demand - side operating rates increased slightly, while factory and social inventories increased [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, but with short - term low valuation and cost increase, a mid - term short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with an expanding basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased, with a strengthening basis. Upstream operating rates decreased, and port inventories increased. Demand - side operating rates showed mixed trends [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: When the inventory reversal point occurs, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The main contract's closing price decreased by 23 yuan/ton, at 6808 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, at 6840 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis. Upstream operating rates decreased slightly, and weekly inventories decreased. Downstream average operating rates increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread decreased [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The main contract's closing price decreased by 28 yuan/ton, at 6382 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, at 6430 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis. Upstream operating rates increased, and weekly inventories decreased. Downstream average operating rates increased slightly, and the LL - PP spread increased [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - demand situation to change in Q1 next year [25]. PX - Market Information: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan, at 6872 yuan. PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars, at 848 dollars. The basis was 44 yuan (+12), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 36 yuan (-4). Chinese and Asian operating rates decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or load reduction. Imports from South Korea decreased in November. Inventories increased in October. Valuation and cost indicators showed some changes [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [28]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract decreased by 22 yuan, at 4730 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan, at 4700 yuan. The basis was - 35 yuan (-2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan (unchanged). The operating rate increased, and downstream operating rates increased slightly. Terminal operating rates showed different trends. Social inventories decreased in November. Spot and futures processing fees changed [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities based on expectations, as the supply is expected to stabilize and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract decreased by 55 yuan, at 3822 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 42 yuan, at 3840 yuan. The basis was 2 yuan (+1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 104 yuan (+1). Supply - side operating rates increased, with some domestic and overseas plants having changes in operations. Downstream operating rates increased slightly, and terminal operating rates showed different trends. Import forecasts and port inventories increased. Valuation and cost indicators showed different trends [30]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [31].