宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年12月4日）-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is bullish with a recommendation to wait and see. The core logic is the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Also, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut is close to 90%, and the upward space is limited. Gold's weakness is due to the recovery of market risk appetite, and there is significant pressure above the 960 mark for short - term Shanghai gold [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish, with a long - term bullish outlook. The core logic is that against the backdrop of good fundamentals, the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, with a nearly 90% probability of a December rate cut. Since late November, there have been positive news on the supply side, such as a high long - term contract premium from Codelco and China's measures to manage copper smelting capacity. Short - term Shanghai copper has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 90,000 mark [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: Gold prices fluctuated yesterday. Since late November, the upward momentum has come from the continuous rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - Market Expectation: The market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut is close to 90%, and the upward space is limited [3]. - Weakness Reason: Gold's weakness is mainly due to the recovery of market risk appetite [3]. - Technical Analysis: There is significant pressure above the 960 mark for short - term Shanghai gold [3]. Copper - Price Movement: After the Asian session yesterday, copper prices continued to rise. Shanghai copper opened higher above the 90,000 mark during the domestic night session and continued to rise with increasing positions [4]. - Market Expectation: The probability of a December interest rate cut is close to 90% [4]. - Supply - side News: Codelco proposed a long - term contract premium of over $300 to global buyers, highlighting the tight global copper mine supply and increasing the cost of global copper trade. China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity and has stopped about 2 million tons of illegal capacity [4]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term Shanghai copper has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 90,000 mark [4].