集运日报：市场多空博弈，盘面宽幅震荡，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the market fluctuating widely. It is recommended to take a small - position long position and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market, but there is no significant fluctuation in freight rates. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4] - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can take a light - position long on the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losing positions, and stop - losses should be set. The arbitrage strategy suggests waiting and seeing or taking a light - position attempt. The long - term strategy suggests taking profits when the contract price rises and waiting for a pullback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On November 28 - December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In the Eurozone in October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast of - 8.5 [3] - In China in October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In the US in October, the preliminary S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3][4] Contract Information - On December 3, the main contract 2602 closed at 1540.1, up 0.92%, with a trading volume of 22,300 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1354 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5] Geopolitical Information - On December 2 (local time), Iranian Parliament Speaker Gholam - Ali Haddad - Adel said that the US has no intention of truly negotiating with Iran or reaching a fair agreement, and Iran will resist any imposed will and unilateral pressure. He also criticized the International Atomic Energy Agency for its silence on US and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities [8]