山金期货黑色板块日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, in the off - season of consumption, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is still high, but the market's expectation for the policy side has increased. Technically, the futures price of steel is oscillating upwards at a low level and may form an upward breakthrough. It is recommended to go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, but the policy side provides support. Technically, the 01 - contract futures price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Band, but it is still in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level. It is recommended to go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, the thread production decreased, the hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of the five major varieties increased month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline, but the hot - rolled coil inventory was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure compared to thread. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, the steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback cycle. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have also shown signs of weakening, weakening the cost support for steel [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - Data: - Price: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 2.26% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3324 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from last week [2]. - Production: The national building materials steel mill thread steel production was 206.08 tons, down 0.90% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 319.01 tons, up 0.95% from last week [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 1007.32 tons, down 2.15% from last week; the thread social inventory was 384.75 tons, down 3.82% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 322.88 tons, down 0.37% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: In terms of demand, last week, the iron ore output of sample steel mills decreased significantly month - on - month. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase after a period. Currently, the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also suppresses the overall market sentiment, but the policy side provides support [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. - Data: - Price: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 799.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.83% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 104.2 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.31% from last week [4]. - Shipment: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.8 tons, down 1.37% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 822.8 tons, up 15.50% from last week [4]. - Inventory: The total port inventory was 15210.12 tons, up 1.03% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 10280.7 tons, up 1.58% from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent out, marking that this world - class iron ore mine that has been dormant for nearly 30 years has officially opened up the entire industrial chain channel of "mine - railway - port - shipping" [6]. - In October, the national stainless steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22% [7]. - In November, 42 national building materials production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 9 more than the previous month. The production reduction and maintenance in November affected the iron ore output by 437,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125.52%; it affected the crude steel output by 697,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.19% [7]. - As of the week ending December 3, the national building materials output was 4.3509 million tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from last week; the social inventory was 4.4779 million tons, a decrease of 231,700 tons from last week; the total inventory was 8.2315 million tons, a decrease of 419,800 tons from last week; the apparent demand was 4.7707 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from last week [7].