20251204申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251204

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released, but the market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process after the rebound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal consumption situation, as well as the supply and production scheduling levels [2]. Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - Prices: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6808, 6874, and 6913 respectively, with price drops of - 23, - 12, and - 18, and declines of - 0.34%, - 0.17%, and - 0.26% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6382, 6478, and 6503 respectively, with price drops of - 28, - 26, and - 23, and declines of - 0.44%, - 0.40%, and - 0.35% respectively [2]. - Trading Volume: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 186405, 81004, and 605 respectively. For PP, they were 228079, 73560, and 1785 respectively [2]. - Open Interest: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 402710, 254796, and 4273 respectively, with changes of - 4354, 3195, and 97. For PP, they were 459901, 282164, and 17557 respectively, with changes of - 9112, 2922, and 305 [2]. - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 39, and 105 respectively, compared with previous values of - 55, - 45, and 100. For PP, they were - 96, - 25, and 121 respectively, compared with previous values of - 94, - 22, and 116 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2132 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 581 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2135 yuan/ton, 6070 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6180 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2]. - Mid - stream: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Wednesday (December 3), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.95 per barrel, up $0.31 or 0.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.37 - $59.64. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.67 per barrel, up $0.22 or 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.18 - $63.37 [2].