Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to continue the two - way fluctuation pattern of "weak US dollar and stable RMB", with the core fluctuation range between 7.05 - 7.10. The RMB appreciation rhythm will be relatively mild, and the two - way fluctuation characteristics will be more obvious. Some institutions predict that the US dollar - RMB exchange rate may gradually approach 7.025 by the end of December [4]. - The short - term profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises is under pressure and is likely to maintain a weak shock pattern. In the medium - and long - term, the profitability of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a gradual repair channel in 2025 [2]. - Stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the balance between long and short forces [6]. - For treasury bonds, medium - term long positions can be continued to hold, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. - The container shipping European line futures price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game between the expectation of resuming navigation and the price - holding actions of shipping companies [8]. - For precious metals, in the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise, and in the short - term, the price elasticity is increased [16]. - For base metals such as copper and aluminum, the prices are affected by factors like the increase in LME copper cancelled warrants, the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, and the improvement of macro - sentiment, showing different trends [17][19]. - For black commodities, the prices of steel products may gradually increase in shock, and iron ore prices will maintain a high - level shock pattern [23][27]. - For energy and chemical products, the oil price is in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term; other products have different trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [33][35]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different varieties such as pigs, oilseeds, and oils are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather, showing different trends [77][78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The US ADP data unexpectedly declined, with employment decreasing by 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM services PMI expansion rate reached the fastest in nine months, with the price index at a seven - month low and the employment index at a six - month high. The new Fed Chairman Hasset is likely to be appointed, and bond investors have warned the US Treasury [1][5]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0661, up 51 points. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people, the lowest since March 2023. The short - term RMB - US dollar exchange rate is expected to be in a two - way fluctuation pattern [3][4]. - Stock Index: The stock index fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 76.532 billion yuan. The US ADP data made investors almost certain that the Fed would cut interest rates next week, but the impact on the market was limited. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [4][6]. - Treasury Bonds: T, TF, TS fluctuated and closed up, while TL continued to decline. The open - market reverse repurchase was 7.93 billion, with a net withdrawal of 13.4 billion. The money market was loose. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, and medium - term long positions can be continued to hold [6][7]. - Container Shipping European Line: The futures price of the container shipping European line continued to fluctuate. The market focused on the game between the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea and the price - holding actions of shipping companies in late December. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [8][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The prices of platinum and palladium were mainly driven by investment attributes, showing a shock - upward trend. The Fed's December interest rate cut probability was about 89%. Long - term platinum ETFs increased, while palladium ETFs decreased [13]. - Gold & Silver: The prices of gold and silver were in a shock pattern. The US ADP data supported the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise [14][16]. - Copper: The copper price rose sharply due to the large increase in LME copper cancelled warrants and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. The short - term copper price is expected to remain high [17]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The price of Shanghai aluminum was shock - upward, mainly driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be shock - upward [18][19]. - Zinc: The zinc price was in a shock - upward trend. The ADP data strengthened the interest rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc may shrink, and the demand is in the off - season [20]. - Tin: The tin price rose driven by funds. The short - term supply is tight, and the interest rate cut expectation is strong. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [20][21]. - Lead: The lead price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply of the lead smelting end decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [21][22]. Black Commodities - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were shock - upward. The overseas macro - sentiment was warming up, and the market expected policy support. However, the iron ore valuation was high, and there was a risk of decline [23][24]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price rose first and then fell. The short - term fundamentals improved, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [26][27]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The coking coal price was under pressure, and the coke price may face a decline. The 01 contract of coking coal can hold short positions, and the 05 contract can be considered for long - term allocation [29][30]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were shock - downward. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [31][32]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: The oil price was in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [33][35]. - LPG: The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply increased slightly, and the demand changed little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The PTA - PX supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. The aromatics blending oil speculation has cooled down, and the PTA processing fee has been repaired to a certain extent [38][41]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The MEG valuation is under pressure. The supply has increased, and the demand is expected to decline. The 12 - month inventory accumulation expectation is revised to a tight balance [43][46]. - Methanol: The 01 contract of methanol maintains a weak expectation. The main factors affecting it include the slow unloading in ports and the situation of Iranian device shutdown [47][48]. - PP: The PP price has a marginal improvement expectation. The supply may decrease, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation and the basis change [49][50]. - PE: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and the basis change [51][52]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [53][54]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the price of Dar Blend stabilizes [55][56]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price is in a weak shock pattern. The winter storage may be insufficient in quantity, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy [56][58]. - Rubber: The natural rubber price is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and the synthetic rubber price may decline. The difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is expected to expand [62][63]. - Urea: The urea price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The high supply is under pressure, but the export policy provides support [64][65]. - Soda Ash & Caustic Soda: The soda ash price is mainly cost - determined, and the glass price is affected by cold - repair expectations. The caustic soda price is expected to be weak [66][68]. - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp price is expected to continue to rise, and the offset paper price is expected to be shock - upward [69][70]. - Log: The log price is in a low - level shock pattern, and the supply and demand are not improved [71][72]. - Propylene: The propylene market remains loose, and the price is in a shock pattern [74][75]. Agricultural Products - Pigs: The short - term supply pressure of pigs is still high, and the long - term supply may be affected by policies [77]. - Oilseeds: The external soybean market is mainly concerned with the supply and Chinese procurement. The domestic soybean meal lacks a single - side driver, and the rapeseed meal has a supply recovery expectation [78][79]. - Oils: The oil price is in a shock pattern. The supply pressure of palm oil and soybean oil exists, and the supply of rapeseed oil may be alleviated [80]. - Cotton: The cotton price is supported by the downstream demand. Pay attention to whether it can break through the hedging pressure level [81]. - Sugar: The sugar price is in a weak state, affected by factors such as production in India and Brazil [82][84]. - Eggs: The long - term egg production capacity is still excessive, and the short - term price may rebound [85]. - Apples: The apple price maintains a strong pattern, and the inventory is increasing [86]. - Jujubes: The jujube price is in a low - level shock pattern. Pay attention to the new jujube production determination [87][88].
金融期货早评-20251204
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-04 01:49