黑色建材日报-20251204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move within a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the overall commodity environment on prices. Although the overall inventory of iron ore is still high, there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make a rebound rather than continue to short. The positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth looking forward to [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short term, with a weak supply - demand pattern and limited marginal changes in the real - world situation. The price of polysilicon is affected by factors such as production reduction, inventory, and delivery games, and the instability risk of the near - month contract is relatively high [13][15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand side shows obvious improvement [18][20]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.149%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3319 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) [1]. - Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [2]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.59% [4]. - Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased significantly, and the profitability of steel mills was at a low level in the same period of the past three years [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes - On December 3, the main contract of manganese silicon closed up 0.31% at 5746 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.04% at 5446 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. - Strategy Views - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak. Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys also showed a weak trend. There is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.61% (- 55). The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57430 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.98% (+ 1115) [12][14]. - Strategy Views - Industrial silicon production is decreasing, and demand is weak. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the near - month contract is unstable [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1020 yuan/ton, down 1.35% (- 14). The soda ash main contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, down 1.52% (- 18) [17][19]. - Strategy Views - The glass industry has reduced supply, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light. The soda ash market has a stable price supported by cost and pending orders, but the demand is still weak [18][20].