新能源及有色金属日报：美铜维持高溢价，带动铜价整体上行-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with arbitrage on hold and a short put option strategy [9] Core Viewpoints - High premiums in US copper are driving up overall copper prices [1] - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, copper demand in various terminal sectors shows structural differentiation, with a multi - polar driven pattern where power is relatively stable and the electronics sector may bring surprises. In 2026, copper demand may only see modest growth [7] - The current high Comex premium, low LME and SHFE copper inventories require attention to the risk of a short squeeze [6] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - Futures Market: On December 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 89,100 yuan/ton and closed at 89,210 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 90,070 yuan/ton and closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, up 2.01% from the afternoon close [2] - Spot Market: The average spot premium of SMM electrolytic copper was 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The price range of 1 electrolytic copper was 88,730 - 89,230 yuan/ton. The market's procurement and sales sentiment improved, but the available supply in Shanghai was still tight, supporting the spot premium to continue rising [3] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: ADP data showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs in November 2023, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the legality of Trump's tariffs, and 9 Japanese companies have sued for tariff refunds [4] - Mining End: Glencore plans to restart the Alumbrera project in Q4 2026, aiming for first production in H1 2028. After full - scale operation, it is expected to produce about 75,000 tons of copper, about 317,000 ounces of gold, and about 1,000 tons of molybdenum per year. Glencore also plans to increase its annual copper production to about 1.6 million tons in the next decade [5] - Smelting and Imports: In November, Chile's copper exports were 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,054,487 tons, with 716,614 tons to China. The Comex premium remains high, and LME and SHFE copper inventories are low [6] - Consumption: During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, copper demand in different terminal sectors is structurally differentiated. The power sector is the ballast of demand, and the electronics sector is the fastest - growing. In 2030, copper consumption in the power sector is expected to exceed 8 million tons, and in 2026, copper demand may only see modest growth [7] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,375 tons to 162,150 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. On December 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 159,000 tons, down 14,500 tons from the previous week [8] Copper Price and Basis Data - Spot Premium: The average premium of SMM 1 copper was 140 yuan/ton, with different premiums for different types of copper [28][29] - Inventory: LME inventory was 162,150 tons, SHFE inventory was 97,930 tons, and COMEX inventory was 391,848 tons [30] - Warehouse Receipts: SHFE warehouse receipts were 28,969 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 3.89% [30][31] - Arbitrage and Other Data: There are relevant data on spreads, ratios, and import profitability [31]