西南期货早间评论-20251204

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Fed are also beneficial to precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [10]. - In the medium term, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are likely to remain weak, but there may be a short - term rebound. Investors can pay attention to high - level short - position opportunities during the rebound [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and there may be resistance to its price increase. Investors can pay attention to high - level short - position opportunities [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures may encounter resistance when rebounding. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities [17]. - The overall oversupply pressure of ferroalloys has weakened. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. - The US - Russia talks send positive signals, which is negative for crude oil prices, but OPEC+ suspending production increase in the first quarter of next year gives market confidence. The crude oil main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22]. - The deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount is positive for fuel oil prices, while the constructive results of the US - Russia negotiation are negative. The fuel oil main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26]. - The domestic polypropylene downstream industries are obviously differentiated. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for polyolefins [28]. - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate within a wide range with limited downward space. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [30]. - The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [32]. - The current PVC supply exceeds demand, and the price may not have much room to fall further. Investors should pay attention to supply - side changes [34]. - The price of urea is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37]. - In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust. Investors should control positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [39]. - In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - In the short term, ethylene glycol may face pressure. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate following costs. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - In the future, bottle - grade polyester chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [44]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of mines [45]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong, but investors should be aware of the callback risk after hitting a new high [47]. - In the short term, the price of electrolytic aluminum is in an adjustment state, while alumina prices are under pressure. Investors should pay attention to substantial production - cut trends [49]. - Zinc prices are likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [52]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate [54]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [60]. - For palm oil, investors can consider going long on pullbacks [62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider a long - biased approach [64]. - The upward space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [67]. - Sugar prices are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate [69]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong [71]. - For live pigs, after partially closing out short positions, investors can consider holding the remaining short positions [74]. - For eggs, investors should consider temporary observation [77]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see and wait for the further release of supply pressure after transportation resumes. Corn starch may follow the corn market [80]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.26% at 113.610 yuan, the 10 - year main contract up 0.06% at 108.040 yuan, the 5 - year main contract up 0.07% at 105.850 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.03% at 102.420 yuan [5]. - The central bank conducted 793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 3rd, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 2133 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1340 billion yuan [5]. - China's November S&P composite PMI was 51.2, and the service PMI was 52.1. The new order index continued to grow, and the new export order improved significantly [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contract of CSI 300 index futures (IF) was down 0.30%, the main contract of SSE 50 index futures (IH) was down 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 index futures (IC) was down 0.41%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 index futures (IM) was down 0.58% [8]. - From January to November this year, the replacement of consumer goods with new ones drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 956.7, with a decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 955.66; the closing price of the silver main contract was 13,582, with an increase of 1.18%, and the night - session closing price was 13608 [10]. - The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000 people, with an expected increase of 10,000 people [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3000 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3170 - 3300 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was between 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton [12]. - In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side still has over - capacity, and the rebar inventory is significantly higher than last year [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 685 yuan/ton [14]. - Since October, the daily output of molten iron in the country has been declining, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures encountered resistance when rebounding. The impact of safety inspections on coking coal production is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weakening, and the auction price of coking coal has decreased [16][17]. - After the fourth increase in the spot purchase price of coke, the profit of coking enterprises has improved, and the supply is stable. However, the demand from steel mills may weaken due to the compression of blast furnace profits [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon closed down 0.03% at 5724 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.11% at 5446 yuan/ton [19]. - In the week of November 28th, the shipment volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased to 56,900 tons, the supply of Australian ore increased since June, and the port manganese ore inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons [19]. - The production of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased by 2100 tons and 1100 tons respectively last week, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The US envoy's negotiation with Russia was constructive [21]. - The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased for the third consecutive week as of November 21st [21]. - OPEC+ may maintain the oil production level at the Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity [21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil hit a low and then rebounded, hitting a new low during the session. The market is concerned about the large - scale supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East [24]. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the inflow of fuel oil from outside Asia will increase [24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer of the Hangzhou PP market showed some high - price loosening, and the high - price transactions were difficult to expand. The price of the Yuyao LLDPE market was adjusted by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [28]. - The average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83%. The demand in the packaging industry decreased after the e - commerce festival, while the operating rates of the PP non - woven fabric and PP pipe industries increased [28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.49%. The price in Shandong remained stable at 11,600 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [30]. - The short - term supply shortage pushed up the price. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate widely this week, and the downward space is limited [30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber fell 0.65%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.86%. The Shanghai spot price was adjusted down to around 14,900 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [32]. - It is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate within a range in the short term. The high price of overseas raw materials supports the rubber price, the operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded significantly, and the inventory shows differentiation [32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 0.44%, the spot price remained stable, and the basis remained stable [34]. - In November 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.0788 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year increase of 5.60%. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the industry inventory is expected to reach 1.53 million tons [34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose 0.59%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [37]. - The daily supply of urea is around 200,000 tons, which restricts the upward space of prices. The new round of export quotas and the concentrated procurement in the Northeast region boost the market sentiment [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fell 0.49%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 280 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit remained stable. The PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton [39]. - The PX operating rate was 88.3%, a slight month - on - month decline. Zhejiang Petrochemical has maintenance plans for CDU and reforming in January 2026, and PX production may decrease [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2601 fell 0.46%. The PTA operating rate was adjusted to 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [40]. - The polyester operating rate was 91.5%, and the long - filament operating rate increased moderately. The PTA processing fee was adjusted to around 170 yuan/ton [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 1.55%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.46% [41]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China was about 753,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from December 1st to 7th is about 161,000 tons [41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber fell 0.29%. The short - fiber operating rate rose to around 97.5% [42]. - The processing fee of short - fiber was adjusted to around 1020 yuan/ton, and the demand side changed little [43]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle - grade polyester chips fell 0.59%. The processing fee was adjusted to around 400 yuan/ton [44]. - The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chip factories dropped to 72.2%. The export of bottle - grade polyester chips increased slightly, with a total export volume of 5.333 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 14% [44]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.82% to 93,660 yuan/ton. There was news of mine resumption this year, which alleviated the shortage expectation [45]. - The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the consumption in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved [45]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% [46]. - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, and the ADP employment showed negative growth [47]. - The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, the processing fee of copper concentrate is in a deep negative range, and the demand for refined copper is affected by high prices and scrap copper substitution [47]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53%, and the main contract of alumina closed at 2632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% [49]. - The supply of domestic ore is tight, but the arrival of imported ore from Guinea has increased. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is considerable but the production increase space is limited [49]. - The demand for aluminum has entered the traditional off - season, and the high price suppresses the downstream procurement willingness [49]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% [52]. - The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the processing fee is decreasing, and the demand has entered the traditional off - season, but there is still some rigid demand at the end of the year [52]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% [54]. - The supply shortage of domestic lead concentrate has been slightly alleviated, and the supply is expected to increase. The battery market is in the off - season,