新能源及有色金属日报：受矿端复产消息影响，碳酸锂盘面回落-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on the day was mainly affected by the expected weakening of consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end. Short - term inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down significantly. The resumption of production at the mine end is advancing, and lithium salt supply has increased significantly. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with a predicted decrease in the power battery segment and high - level maintenance in the energy storage segment. Short - term interval operation is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,560 yuan/ton and closed at 93,660 yuan/ton, with a - 2.82% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 643,323 lots, and the open interest was 562,836 lots (the previous day's open interest was 552,239 lots). The current basis was - 1,970 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 9,652 lots, a change of 660 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, also a - 50 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,205 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The actual transaction prices in the market were mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong, the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply shortage pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to be depleted in December, but the depletion rate will slow down compared to November [2]. - In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 28% month - on - month decrease; the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a 9% month - on - month decrease. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a 493% month - on - month increase. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a 33% year - on - year increase [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term interval operation [4] - Cross - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]