豆油去库不及预期，盘面持续震荡

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View - The market for the three major oils is volatile. Strong stocking demand for the upcoming Lunar New Year and Ramadan celebrations in early 2026, along with floods in Asia that may slow down the picking rhythm, provide some support for the oils. However, the slower - than - expected reduction of soybean oil inventory keeps its price under pressure. Overall, the market is in a volatile state [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8730.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8286.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.00 yuan or -0.02% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9711.00 yuan/ton, a change of -34.00 yuan or -0.35% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.92%, with a spot basis of P01 + 10.00, a change of +70.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan/ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 174.00, a change of +22.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970.00 yuan/ton, a change of -60.00 yuan or -0.60%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 259.00, a change of -26.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News Agricultural Supervision - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed a winter crop seed supervision and inspection across the country, focusing on key crops like corn, rice, soybeans, etc., to ensure the safety of agricultural seeds [2] Argentina's Soybean Forecast - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4690 tons, with a forecast range of 4580 - 4810 tons. The sowing is delayed, and the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is decreasing [2] - The predicted sowing area is 1670 hectares, higher than the Rosario Exchange's prediction of 1640 hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's prediction of 1760 hectares [2] Import Price Changes - Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (January shipment) is 1198 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars/ton; (March shipment) is 1140 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton [2] - Canada's C&F price of rapeseed oil (January shipment) is 1105 dollars/ton, unchanged; (March shipment) is 1085 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Canada's C&F price of rapeseeds (January shipment) is 530 dollars/ton, unchanged; (March shipment) is 539 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton [2] - C&F prices of soybeans from different regions (January shipment): US Gulf at 499 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton; US West at 494 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; Brazil at 479 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2] Import Premium Changes - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) at 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) at 223 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) at 180 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel [2]