尿素早评：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels. Strategically, pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1692.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 5.00 yuan (0.30%) from December 2 [1] - UR05: 1748.00 yuan/ton on December 3, down 4.00 yuan (-0.23%) from December 2 [1] - UR09: 1768.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - Shandong: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Shanxi: 1540.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Henan: 1690.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 10.00 yuan (0.60%) from December 2 [1] - Hebei: 1710.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Northeast: 1740.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Jiangsu: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR basis: -68.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 4.00 yuan from December 2 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -56.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 9.00 yuan from December 2 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices: 1030.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 930.00 yuan/ton in Shanxi on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices: 3060.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 2620.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Melamine prices: 5217.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 5250.00 yuan/ton in Jiangsu on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1684 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1697 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1679 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1692 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1690 yuan/ton [1] Multi - Empty Logic - From a valuation perspective, the rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]