尿素：现货成交连续放量，价格中枢上移

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 on a scale ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers of urea are currently neutral. The demand - side factors such as reserve and export have led to a temporary improvement in the urea fundamentals, but the future upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The continuous reduction of visible inventory supports the price [2][3]. - In the short - term, the spot price of urea is strong due to continuous high trading volume, while the futures price is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, so its upward trend slows down. However, supported by the strong spot, the futures price is in a pattern of oscillation with an upward - shifting price center [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Market: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,692 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,690 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The trading volume was 120,620 lots, an increase of 34,553 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 209,553 lots, a decrease of 9,749 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,765 tons, a decrease of 122 tons; the trading volume was 407.808 million yuan, an increase of 118.24 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 12 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the difference between UR01 - UR05 was - 56, an increase of 9 [1]. - Spot Market: The factory prices of some urea producers remained stable, while the prices of Shanxi Fengxi and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas remained unchanged. The industry's operating rate was 84.10%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons [1]. [Industry News] - On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased [2]. - In terms of valuation, in the short - term, the valuation range of urea has shifted upward. The static valuation pressure on the futures is around 1,700 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the support for the 01 contract is estimated to be in the range of 1,580 - 1,600 yuan/ton [3].